Investors have been rattled by contagion fears over a bond-market meltdown in France this week.
But when it comes to systemic risks looming over the market next year, they have bigger things to worry about-at least according to George Saravelos, head of foreign-exchange research at Deutsche Bank, who summarized the upshot from his conversations with clients this week like this:
"The biggest systemic risk in the market next year is not France but 'something going wrong' in the AI ecosystem: a safety event, a failed IPO, or disappointing revenues."
Saravelos cited a Brookings paper that recently estimated AI labs need to generate upwards of $3.5 trillion a year by 2032 to earn a return on data-center investments.
"Concentration risk is immense, and it is this dollar negative (and very bond positive) event risk that is most under-priced in markets at the moment," Saravelos said.