Lumentum Can't Keep up with AI Demand-and Its Stock is Surging

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Shares of Lumentum and other optical networking stocks, advanced Friday after CEO Michael Hurlston said the company has almost sold out of its optical parts through 2029 and will struggle to keep up with demand in the near future.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday, Hurlston said the company has almost sold out of its optoelectronic parts through 2029 and has struggled to meet demand for its laser chips.

"We are really trying to catch up, add capacity as fast as we can, but we are very, very far behind where customers want," Hurlston said.

He explained that Lumentum won't be able to meet 30% of demand for some products through 2028, with other items facing an even steeper 70% shortfall through next year.

Lumentum didn't respond to a request from Barron's to confirm the information.

That "sold out" notice offered further evidence of strong demand for artificial-intelligence hardware, as optical networking stocks rose Friday. Lumentum stock rose 7.4% to $1,125.25. Meanwhile, Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics gained 2.3% and 5.7%, respectively.

Lumentum's supply shortfall could mean that hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, will turn to other optical suppliers, such as Coherent and Applied Optoelectronics, to fill the gap.

Lumentum supplies advanced indium phosphide devices that support high-speed computing and data flow. Hurlston said shipments for Lumentum's laser chips, which are essentially small engines that translate electricity into light, have fallen "vastly behind" demand.

With demand outstripping supply, component makers could have room to raise prices and improve profit margins.

Having production capacity fully committed through 2029 also gives suppliers and investors some visibility into future revenue. It could also ease concerns that the AI infrastructure spending boom will prove short-lived.

Optical component stocks have become huge winners from the AI infrastructure boom that began this year, as spending on data centers and high-speed networking has surged. For instance, earlier this year, Nvidia announced investments of $2 billion each in Lumentum and Coherent.

 

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