Stocks Keep Climbing-and so Do Bond Yields

Dow Jones
Oct 06

Bond yields just keep marching higher. That hasn't stopped stocks from doing the same.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasurys touched a fresh 24-year high on Monday, while the Nasdaq composite cinched a new record close. It was another example of stock prices and bond yields both drifting in the same direction, as a global bond rout coincides with the unrestrained momentum of the artificial-intelligence investing boom.

Nasdaq finished the day at 27,477, about 1% above its previous record in September. The S&P 500 rose 0.7%, less than 1% from an all-time high. The Dow industrials advanced 0.2%, or 91 points.

"Bonds are continuing their trend, and so are stocks," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. "If you think the benefits of AI are essentially infinite, so what if you have to pay more to borrow money?"

Bond yields and equity prices often move in opposition to one another -- in part because rising yields can drag on corporate profits by hiking borrowing costs. But in recent weeks, bond yields and equity indexes have advanced in tandem. Sky-high earnings expectations and AI optimism have bolstered share prices, while inflation worries and signs of resilient economic growth have fueled a weekslong bond selloff.

Monday's momentum-driven trading session kicked off what should be a relatively quiet week on Wall Street -- there are few economic data releases on the schedule, and investors will have to wait several more days for the unofficial kickoff to earnings season, when the country's largest banks will report third-quarter profits.

Meanwhile, one of the most prevalent themes of the bull market prevailed again Monday: tech stocks leading the market higher, with AI giant Nvidia closing at a new all-time high for the first time since May. Memory plays like Western Digital and Seagate Technology were among the biggest gainers in the S&P 500, and the Magnificent Seven stocks closed at a new market cap high, with a combined market value of $24.8 trillion.

Shares of megacap tech companies in particular can function like havens in the face of climbing interest rates, said Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading. "Investors are wagering that megacap tech can withstand the risks of higher rates," he said.

But Monday's equity gains were also broad-based: All but one S&P 500 sector closed in the green.

Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield advanced to 5.310%, after touching a new two-decade high above 5.34% in afternoon trading. Yields climbed steadily until late in the U.S. trading session with no obvious, strong catalyst. That added to concerns that the bond selloff might be getting a life of its own, with investors selling Treasurys largely because that's what others are doing.

The selloff in U.S. Treasurys has been going on for months, but it has moved through several different phases. Just a few weeks ago, yields were rising much faster on short-term Treasurys than long-term Treasurys, reflecting escalating expectations for how high the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates.

But that has shifted in recent days: Since Sept. 23, the yield on the 10-year note has climbed around 0.2 percentage point while the 2-year yield has actually dropped -- causing what is known on Wall Street as a steepening yield curve.

 

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