U.S. Treasury Yields Rise in Asian Trade, Hover Near 24-Year Highs

Dow Jones
4 hours ago
 
 

U.S. Treasury yields rose in Asian trade on Thursday, remaining slightly below fresh multidecade highs reached during Wednesday's session.

The current levels reflect economic resilience, high inflation, fiscal concerns, and public and private sectors competing for investors. The higher term premium also indicates additional yield sought by investors seeking to buy long-dated bonds rather than short-dated ones.

The 10-year Treasury yield last traded 3.9 basis points higher at 5.315%, while the 30-year Treasury yield increased 4.4 basis points to 5.704%, according to Tradeweb. These levels are near the 24-year highs of 5.365% and 5.732%, respectively, reached Wednesday.

Investors are divided over whether the yields have room to rise further or could start falling soon.

Higher U.S. Treasury yields reflect an economy that has remained resilient, inflation that is still above target, and a fiscal backdrop that requires substantial Treasury issuance, said JoAnne Bianco, senior investment strategist at BondBloxx Investment Management, in a note.

"If growth moderates and inflation were to ease, yields could move lower," she said. "That being said, investors should probably expect a higher rate environment than what prevailed during the decade following the Global Financial Crisis."

Infrastructure Capital Advisors are bullish on 10-year U.S. Treasurys, and expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates only one more time, fewer than priced in by markets. Money markets currently price in 80 basis points of Fed rate hikes over the next 12 months, according to LSEG.

"The U.S. 10-year [Treasury yield] normally trades at 100 [basis points] over the terminal Fed Funds rate so we expect the U.S. 10-year to stabilize in the 5% area as weak housing data and low CPI Core prints putting the Fed on hold," said Jay Hatfield, CEO and portfolio manager.

Rising interest rates and a 10-year Treasury yield at 5% shouldn't be prohibitive, said Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments.

"If you can borrow at 5%, 5.25%, 5.5%, and generate a 20% return, as a corporate CEO, that is what you should be doing," she said in a note.

 
 

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