Cheesecake Factory's Same-Store-Sales Growth Momentum Potentially Sustainable, Oppenheimer Says

MT Newswires Live
Oct 06

Cheesecake Factor's (CAKE) same-store-sales growth momentum could be sustainable, leaving room for significant upward revisions to 2026 and 2027 Street forecasts, Oppenheimer said in a note Tuesday.

For Q3 and Q4, the brokerage conservatively models same-store sales growth of 9.1% and 7%, with an upside bias versus Street estimates of 7.6% and 4.8%, respectively.

Management's revenue and margin forecasts could imply 2027 EPS above Street's estimate of $5.01. The brokerage sees a realistic path to EPS of more than $6 in 2027, creating the potential for an elongated revision cycle, according to the note.

Furthermore, Oppenheimer said it sees a strong same-store sales growth and EPS beat, and it expects the company to raise its 2026 revenue and net income margin outlooks from nearly $4 billion and 5.4%, respectively.

Looking ahead, the analysts raised their 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates to $4.70 and $5.32, respectively, from $4.39 and $4.84, respectively, ahead of Street's consensus of $4.54 and $5.01, respectively. It now assumes same-store sales growth of 5.9% and 2.5% for 2026 and 2027, respectively, versus Street consensus of 4.9% and 2.2%.

Oppenheimer kept its outperform rating on Cheesecake Factory with a price target of $122.

Price: 108.75, Change: -0.28, Percent Change: -0.26

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