Pepsi Earnings are All About the Turnaround Plan

Dow Jones
1 hour ago

Rising costs are complicating PepsiCo's efforts to revive its North American business.

The company cut prices and rolled out new products to improve demand. Then higher commodity, packaging, and freight expenses pushed it to raise prices on some products again.

When it reports fiscal third-quarter results before the market opens Thursday, investors will be watching whether PepsiCo can protect profits without putting further pressure on already-soft volumes.

For the quarter ended Sept. 5, Wall Street expects PepsiCo to post adjusted earnings of $2.30 a share on net revenue of about $24.96 billion, according to analysts polled by FactSet. That would represent roughly 0.4% growth in adjusted earnings and 4.3% growth in reported revenue from a year earlier.

In the latest quarter, Pepsi's net revenue rose 6.4% from a year earlier to $24.18 billion; organic revenue, which excludes the effects of currency moves, acquisitions, and divestitures, increased 2.4%. Adjusted earnings per share rose 4% to $2.20.

International businesses posted double-digit sales growth, but North American trends remained soft: At PepsiCo Foods North America, revenue fell 2%, volume was flat, and lower pricing weighed on sales. North American beverage volume declined 4%.

Last year, activist investor Elliott Investment Management disclosed a $4 billion stake in PepsiCo, pushing for faster growth and better margins. The company announced a turnaround plan that includes cutting nearly 20% of its U.S. products and reviewing its North American supply chain and distribution network.

Earlier this year, the company cut suggested retail prices for brands like Lay's and Doritos by as much as 15% to bring back customers. It's also been pushing portion-controlled offerings, zero-sugar drinks, and products with added protein and fiber to accommodate consumers' changing preference.

But the affordability push is running against renewed cost pressures. PepsiCo said it is planning low- to mid-single-digit price increases on some snacks later this year or early in the new year to keep pace with inflation. While management says prices should remain below levels before the cuts, the shift has raised concerns of pressured volumes again.

For this year, PepsiCo has guided organic revenue growth of 2% to 4% and core constant-currency per-share earnings growth of 4% to 6%. Favorable currency moves are expected to boost sales and earnings growth by one percentage point, while acquisitions, net of divestitures, should add another percentage point to sales growth.

On Thursday, investors will watch whether PepsiCo can defend that outlook and rebuild North American volume, and whether international growth remains strong enough to offset U.S. weakness. Commentary on the planned price increases -- and what they mean for 2027 profitability -- will be another key focus.

As of Wednesday's close, PepsiCo shares are down 13.8% this year and have been trading near a 52-week low.

 

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