Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0523 GMT - Sticky inflation and resilient economic growth together point to the potential for further upward pressure on rates, State Street Investment Management's strategists say. "Given this, our view is that rates could continue their recent upward momentum in the near term," they say in a note. State Street IM, therefore, remains cautious on broad macro positioning, maintaining a neutral stance on duration and the yield curve while remaining underweight credit, they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0522 GMT - Higher U.S. Treasury yields reflect an economy that has remained resilient, inflation that is still above target, and a fiscal backdrop that requires substantial Treasury issuance, says BondBloxx Investment Management's JoAnne Bianco in a note. "If growth moderates and inflation were to ease, yields could move lower," the senior investment strategist says. That said, investors should probably expect a higher rate environment than what prevailed during the decade following the Global Financial Crisis, she says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0510 GMT - Rising interest rates and a 10-year Treasury yield at 5% shouldn't be prohibitive, Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO of Laffer Tengler Investments, says in a note. In the '90s, 10-year yields averaged between 5% and 8%, she says. "If you can borrow at 5%, 5.25%, 5.5%, and generate a 20% return, as a corporate CEO, that is what you should be doing," she says. "There's an insatiable appetite for bond offerings--we see that with the pension plans and the state funds--and we believe that will continue," she says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0505 GMT - The France-led repricing has started to spill over into the broader eurozone government bond, credit and bank-funding markets, but the bar for a European Central Bank intervention remains high, SEB's Jussi Hiljanen says in a note. For the ECB to step in, the contagion has to become much more severe, the chief rates strategist says. Hiljanen expects that the situation around France's budget talks won't escalate further at this point, which would allow the 10-year Bund yield to oscillate mostly in the 3.40%-3.60% range in the near term.The 10-year German Bund yield closed at 3.473% on Wednesday, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0502 GMT - Infrastructure Capital Advisors are bullish on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note as it anticipates the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates only one more time. One rate hike would be in line with the Fed's dot plots--or policymakers' rates forecast--, and would be fewer than priced in by markets, says the CEO and portfolio manager in a note. "The U.S. 10-year [yield] normally trades at 100 [bps] over the terminal Fed Funds rate so we expect the U.S. 10-year [yield] to stabilize in the 5% area as weak housing data and low CPI Core prints putting the Fed on hold," he says. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 3 bps to 5.306% in Asian trade, below Wednesday's 24-year intraday high of 5.365%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0500 GMT - Competition for capital and policy credibility issues are lifting term premiums for bonds, says Adam Donaldson, head of market strategy at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. This is over and above higher expected average cash rates stemming from a shift in the global savings and investment balance, he adds. Loose fiscal policy is part of that structural change, but there's unlikely to be a debt sustainability crisis unhinging markets, Donaldson says. Bond yields should start to recede in 2027 and curves flatten as interest rate hikes are delivered and credibility is bolstered, he adds. Still, they'll remain structurally higher, Donaldson adds.

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