Review & Preview: Risky Business

Dow Jones
1 hour ago

Chips in Charge. Stocks ended broadly higher on Tuesday, though most of that was thanks to semiconductor stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both gained 0.3% while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7%.

Chip stocks were one of the few industries working on Tuesday. The moves came a day before Nvidia's earnings report (more on that below). The iShares Semiconductor exchange-traded fund ended the day 1.6% higher.

Risk was back on the menu, and though Bitcoin couldn't hold above the $80,000 mark it crossed this morning, it's still up more than 14% in the past five days and notched its highest close since May.

That's a welcome respite from tech's recent woes. Bulls hope it could be the start of something new. "Every major AI benchmark-AIQ, SMH, SOXX, QQQ-sits roughly where it did three and a half months ago after a long stretch of fits and starts; we believe this is consolidation before a breakout, not before a breakdown, and Nvidia's report tomorrow could be the catalyst," wrote InvestorPlace Senior Investiment analyst Luke Lango.

We won't have to wait long to find out.

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The Hot Stock: Moderna +14.4% The Biggest Loser: Albemarle -5.9%

Best Sector: Information Technology +1% Worst Sector: Energy -1.7%

Nvidia Eve

Nvidia Day isn't quite what it used to be.

After years of explosive stock growth, Nvidia has delivered a relatively staid gain of 15% so far in 2026. It recently clawed back ground after its worst losing streak in four years. The shares have sold off after earnings over the past four quarters, and, as my colleague Callum Keown notes, companies like Marvell Technology may be more impactful when it comes to the whipsawing AI trade.

That said, it would be a mistake to say that earnings from the world's largest company, due out tomorrow, don't matter. Nvidia is still the largest component in the S&P 500 by a comfortable margin, accounting for well north of 7% of the index. Moreover, it's still making plenty of waves with its deep pockets, like this weekend's $6 billion investment in AI start-up Poolside, which is a shot across the bow of increasingly popular Chinese AI models. And as Barron's Al Root wrote this spring, even with all of Nvidia's gains, "this isn't yet as good as it gets for AI computing."

"As we head into the results we are at a crossroads and that's what makes this quarter so important," writes Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. "Will the stock just continue to trend in its neutral range or will it finally pick a more distinct direction? If so, what will that direction be?"

Even as other companies gain prominence, a Nvidia problem is still an everyone problem. Earlier today, Piper Sandler's Chief Market Technician Craig W. Johnson noted that if Nvidia isn't able to hold around its recent moving average support levels, that "would increase downside risk not only for semis, but for tech-heavy indices." And it's hard not to include the S&P 500 in that category.

At the end of the day, the market wants another beat-and-raise quarter and assurance that the seemingly limitless AI spending is still humming along.

The Calendar

Nvidia, Salesforce, CrowdStrike, and HP Inc. report second-quarter earnings results tomorrow.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the personal consumption expenditures reading for July. Economists forecast a year-over-year reading of 3.6%, down modestly from the 3.7% figure published for June. Monthly inflation is expected to quicken to 0.07% from June's -0.1% reading. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy, are expected to rise 3.2% on the year, down from 3.3% in June. The core month-over-month reading is expected to rise modestly, to 0.18% from 0.13%.

The BEA also releases its revised second-quarter estimate for gross domestic product growth. Economists expect an unchanged reading of 3.1%.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta releases its latest GDPNow index reading. The index currently forecasts 4% growth in the third quarter.

The Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for July. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted reading of 0.5%, effectively unchanged from June.

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