MARKET WRAPS

European shares were largely down Thursday, though semiconductor companies were bucking that trend, as investors took stock of Nvidia's after-hours earnings and looked ahead to the annual Kansas City Federal Reserve conference in Jackson Hole Wyoming.

"While markets will naturally be focused on interest rates, the bigger story this year is Kevin Warsh's first appearance at Jackson Hole as Federal Reserve chair and what it may reveal about his vision for the future of the Fed," Isio Investment Management said, adding that the symposium is likely to be less about immediate policy decisions and more about understanding the longer-term direction of monetary policy.

All eyes will be on Warsh's keynote speech Friday but his aversion to providing forward guidance is well known, and Russell Investments contends the moment isn't right for a strident view.

That said, the speech is an early test of his communication strategy and credibility and he will need to strike a careful balance, Impax Asset Management said.

"A message perceived as too dovish could trigger further [Treasury] curve steepening, weigh on the dollar and support gold. Conversely, a more hawkish tone risks prompting markets to price a September rate hike."

Approaching midday the FTSE 100 and the CAC 40 were in negative territory while the DAX rose. The European-wide Stoxx 600 index was down.

Those movements come as German consumer economic expectations picked up for the fourth month in a row and as buyer demand in the U.K.'s home-building sector showed signs of recovery.

Elsewhere, bank lending to eurozone businesses fell in July, a sign that rising borrowing costs might be weakening the currency area's economy.

Economic Insight

Syz Group said it doesn't expect a rate hike by the Fed at its meeting next month, even if investors will likely increase slightly their expectations for one.

"We stick for the moment to our outlook of no further Fed rate hike in the second half [of the year]."

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank said the U.S. Treasury is expected to be more interventionist, pursuing incremental adjustments rather than dramatic changes to debt management, following its announcement it would double buying back long-end securities.

U.S. Markets:

Stock futures were poised to start the trading day on a positive note, with Nvidia's earnings providing momentum.

Forex:

The euro was flat against the dollar as crude oil prices remained contained. The risk of higher inflation and weaker growth in Europe continues to increase and could potentially weaken the euro against the dollar in coming weeks, MUFG said.

The dollar traded steady in early European trade as investors waited to see whether Warsh provides a better understanding of the Fed's monetary policy. Bonds:

Eurozone government bond yields opened slightly higher as investors focus on the region's elevated natural gas prices, which are near five-month highs even as the price of Brent crude oil has declined.

U.S. Treasury yields declined slightly following Wednesday's key PCE inflation data.

"With core PCE holding at 3.3% year-on-year and the supercore re-accelerating, the pressure on [Fed Chairman Kevin] Warsh to signal a hawkish posture is real--but consensus remains that he will avoid a definitive policy commitment," Danske Bank said.

The 10-year Treasury might face an uphill battle to fall below 4.50% any time soon, ING said, adding that it expects the 10-year yield to settle between 4.50% to 5% for now.

"All things considered, if the buyback plan is there to bully long-end yields lower on a structural basis, there is a war to be fought ahead." Energy:

Oil prices retreated as analysts remained cautiously positive that talks between Oman and Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude for October delivery fell 1.4%, while WTI contracts slipped 1.6%.

Metals:

New York gold futures traded flat at $4,654.70 a troy ounce in morning European trade. The market remains stuck between expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and worries over U.S. debt.

Copper moved slightly lower in morning European trade after the U.S. dollar strengthened, ANZ said, adding the market awaited an announcement from the White House on plans for tariffs on imported refined copper.

EMEA HEADLINES

Jameson Maker Pernod Ricard Warns Americans Aren't Drinking Enough

Pernod Ricard said fading interest in boozing in the U.S. will continue to weigh on sales over the coming years, offsetting growing enthusiasm in newer drinking markets.

The French distiller of major labels like Jameson, Ballantine's and Chivas Regal whiskies, as well as Absolut vodka and Martell cognac, made 9.4 billion euros ($11 billion) in sales over the 12 months through June. That was 14% lower than last fiscal year, or 3.9% lower on an organic basis.

Sweden's Boliden to Buy Majority Stake in Zinc Producer Nexa Resources for $1.3 Billion

STOCKHOLM-Swedish miner Boliden agreed to buy a majority stake in Nexa Resources for around $1.31 billion.

The deal follows discussions that were disclosed earlier this year and sees Boliden buy Votorantim's near 65% stake in New York Stock Exchange-listed Nexa.

Delivery Hero Lifts Guidance on Increased Growth

Delivery Hero raised its full-year guidance on accelerated growth in its groceries quick-delivery business as it reported a stronger performance in its top-line metrics in the second quarter.

The German food-delivery company now expects on-year like-for-like gross merchandise value growth of 9% to 11%, instead of 8% to 10%. It also projects on-year like-for-like group revenue growth of 17% to 19%, up from 14% to 16% previously.

Harmony Gold's Earnings Rise on Higher Gold Prices

Harmony Gold Mining posted a rise in fiscal 2026 earnings as higher gold prices offset a decline in production.

The South African gold miner said Thursday that headline earnings per share for the year ended June 30 rose 87% to 258 cents. Pretax profit jumped to $2.27 billion from $1.17 billion a year earlier.

GLOBAL NEWS

BOJ Deputy Gov. Himino Vows Inflation Vigilance as Rate-Hike Bets Mount

SAITAMA, Japan-The Bank of Japan remains alert to inflation risks and will discuss the need to tighten policy, Deputy Gov. Ryozo Himino said, as markets increasingly bet that the next rate hike is near.

"With underlying inflation approaching 2%, we must make a comprehensive judgment by weighing how thoroughly to verify data against the risk of falling behind the curve if we fail to act in a timely manner," Himino said at a news conference Thursday after meeting business leaders in Saitama, a city north of Tokyo.

Forget the VIX-Bond Yields Are the Market's New Fear Index

Treasury yields are acting as Wall Street's new "fear gauge," supplanting traditional risk measures as investors parse the impact of a host of fiscal, monetary, and geopolitical issues that are piling up into the final months of the year.

This change of focus for rates-from mostly expressing views on growth and inflation to warning about issues including fiscal largess, artificial-intelligence investments, global oil prices, and election risks-represents a key change for investors.

U.S. and Canada Are Bracing for Prolonged Trade Dispute

The U.S. and Canadian governments, along with businesses in both countries, are bracing for a prolonged trade dispute that could last until after the midterm elections, according to people familiar with their thinking.

Washington and Ottawa are locked in a tariff tit-for-tat after last-minute talks broke down over the weekend. The Trump administration on Saturday imposed 50% tariffs on $20 billion of Canadian goods, leading Prime Minister Mark Carney to retaliate with similar tariffs on a range of U.S. goods, effective Sept. 8.

CIA Chief's Surprise Moscow Trip Was to Warn Russia Not to Attack NATO

The surprise visit by the director of the Central Intelligence Agency to Moscow this week was to deliver a warning to Russia not to attack NATO countries, according to people briefed on the visit.

The trip was spy-agency chief John Ratcliffe's first publicly known visit to the Russian capital. It followed new U.S. intelligence assessments, reported earlier by The Wall Street Journal, that Russian President Vladimir Putin could try to test the resolve of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization with a limited assault on an allied country in the next few years.

The Russia-Ukraine Air War Has Entered a New, Deadlier Phase

A Russian barrage of missiles and drones hit a children's hospital, a school, apartments and warehouses around Kyiv last week, killing at least 16 people. Ukraine, lacking Patriot interceptors, didn't shoot down any of Russia's ballistic missiles.

Ukraine's response this week included a drone strike that caused a massive fire at one of Russia's largest oil refineries, near Nizhny Novgorod, on Wednesday. Meanwhile, in the central Russian region of Tambov, a warehouse belonging to e-commerce giant Wildberries burned.

Runaway Drug Violence Sets Off a Political Earthquake in Costa Rica

LIMÓN, Costa Rica-Once a beacon of democratic stability in a region beset by lawlessness, Costa Rica is facing a surge in drug violence that threatens to upend the country's political system.

With homicides up 50% since 2020-putting the country's murder rate on par with Mexico's-Costa Rican President Laura Fernández and her ruling party are blaming the independent judiciary.

Labor Protests and Panic Buying Signal Growing Pressure in Iran

Iranians rushed to buy fuel and food this week, signaling mounting economic pressure as the Trump administration's threat to tighten sanctions sparked fears of deeper shortages and pain.

Small demonstrations by labor unions-which had all but disappeared during the war-are popping up across the country. Oil workers, pensioners and teachers have gathered to complain about the declining currency and rising cost of living.

Write to pierre.bertrand@wsj.com