Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Yesterday

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0938 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields edge lower in European mid-morning trade while the dollar is steady as investors digest the Treasury's decision to increase long-end debt buybacks and its plan to economically isolate Iran. "Financial markets are heading into a heavy run of catalysts following their reaction to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's moves on long-dated Treasury buybacks and the latest sanctions against Iran," says the The Revacy Fund's Zaheer Anwari in a note. Treasury yields remain at elevated levels as markets await the next round of U.S. economic data, he says. The 10-year Treasury yield falls 1.6 basis points to 4.886%. The DXY index is stable at 99.028. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0929 GMT - Concerns about the prospect of dollar debasement in the wake of the U.S. Treasury's decision to buy back more long-term bonds might be overdone, MUFG Bank analysts say in a note. Dollar debasement involves investors seeking alternative assets due to the concerns about the currency being devalued. "While fiscal concerns, Treasury buybacks and record debt levels continue to support the debasement narrative, historical experience suggests caution in extrapolating to U.S. asset selloff," the analysts say. As long as yields remain elevated, the more likely outcome is that the dollar stabilizes, they say. The DXY dollar index trades steady at 99.016, having reached a three-month low of 98.557 on Thursday.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0928 GMT - This year's Federal Reserve Jackson Hole symposium is particularly keenly awaited, Julius Baer's David Kohl and Dario Messi say in a note. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech will come after the central bank's communication in July offered investors little clarity on the policy outlook, they say. "Historically, Jackson Hole has only occasionally been a major market mover, but when it has been, the impulses have often been sizeable and long-lasting," they say. The event, running between Thursday and Saturday, comes at a declicate time for bond markets, which are still digesting last week's signal from the surprise Treasury buy-back announcement, Kohl and Messi say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0923 GMT - Asian equities closed mixed Tuesday and oil dropped. Investors were cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole economic symposium as well as coming Nvidia earnings. South Korea's Kospi rebounded from earlier losses to end 0.7% higher, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index ended flat and China's Shanghai Composite gained 0.2%. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures fell 2.0% to $83.33 a barrel, while front-month Brent crude oil futures were 1.8% lower at $90.49 a barrel. Bitcoin topped $80,000 for the first time since May and was last 1.2% higher at $79,853.78 as fresh investor interest in the so-called debasement trade brought growing support for the cryptocurrency as a dollar hedge. Spot gold was relatively stable after the recent rally, last shedding 0.5% to $4,627.82 a troy ounce (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0851 GMT - The cost of euro credit default protection declines as markets stabilize ahead of Nvidia's earnings report due on Wednesday. The tech giant's earnings are likely to influence market sentiment around AI investments, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. "The market's tolerance for anything less than a flawless report is extremely limited," he says. The iTraxx Europe Crossover index of euro high-yield credit default swaps falls 1 basis point to 248bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0850 GMT - Rising competition for funds by AI companies and governments is causing investors to demand higher yields on their investments, Nuveen's Laura Cooper says in a note. Many of the long-dated bond yields of major economies are close to multiyear highs as investors absorb increased bond issuance both from corporates and sovereigns, she says. Concerns about fiscal sustainability are also contributing to rising government bond yields, Cooper says. "As existing debt rolls over, higher borrowing costs feed into interest expense, putting more pressure on deficits and requiring more issuance." Ten-year German Bund yields climb 0.1 basis point to 3.253%, staying close to a 15-year high of 3.275% reached last week, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0847 GMT - Sterling rises to a one-week high against the euro, recovering to levels seen before the U.S. Treasury announced increased buybacks of long-term securities. This signals that the positive premium in the euro has been scaled back, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. "If calm is indeed restored in the bond market, expect the pair to return to tracking short-term rate differentials closely." Sterling is likely to turn lower against the euro in coming months as expectations for interest-rate rises by the Bank of England look excessive, he says. The euro falls to as low as 0.8544 pounds and ING expects it to reach 0.8700 over the next few months. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0817 GMT - March 2033 gilt auction due at 0900 GMT could attract good demand given current relatively high yields, Mizuho's Evelyne Gomez-Liechti says in a note. "A solid auction could extend the rally towards the long end, but we remain cautious given the Autumn Budget risk." March 2033 gilt yields climb 2 basis points to last trade at 4.799%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0815 GMT - The euro is likely to stabilize against the dollar rather than extend its recent gains as it looks overvalued, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. ING's models suggest the short-term fair value for the euro sits just below $1.16. This indicates there is probably some, albeit contained, risk premium on the dollar linked to last week's U.S. Treasury announcement about increasing buybacks of long-term securities, Pesole says. That argues against the euro taking another leap higher above $1.17, he says. The euro trades steady at $1.1657, having reached a three-month high of $1.1711 on Friday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0721 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, are little changed as bond markets calm after a report on CNBC indicated that the U.S. could use cash in the Treasury General Account to buy back Treasury bonds. "Using the TGA may help fund the larger buyback operations without resorting to higher issuance of short-term debt," Deutsche Bank Research strategists say in a note. Ten-year gilt yields are steady at 5.054%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0720 GMT - Bitcoin continues to perform well, remaining comfortably above $80,000, after rising to a three-month high overnight. The cryptocurrency has continued to rally in the wake of last week's U.S. Treasury announcement about increasing buybacks of long-term bonds and President Trump pushing for the passage of the Clarity Act crypto legislation. Short covering, where investors close out earlier bets against an asset as it rises, has helped bitcoin's rally, Charles Schwab's Joe Mazzola says in a note. Bitcoin rises 2.3% to $80,732, having hit as high as $81,237 overnight, LSEG data show. Ether gains 1.4% to $2,509, near the six-month high of $2,545 reached on Saturday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0709 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields decline in opening trade as U.S. Treasury yields stabilize after rising during Asian trade. Oil prices decline even as the Middle East situation is turning more complex after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent launched a campaign to isolate Iran and warned countries and companies against making business with the country. Tuesday's eurozone government bond supply comes from Germany which sells 5 billion euros in the September 2028 Schatz. The 10-year Bund yield falls 1.1 basis points to 3.241% and declines are similar in other 10-year bonds, though 10-year Italian government bonds slightly outperform, according to Tradeweb.

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