Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0926 ET - Investors should avoid worst-case scenarios about the Canadian economy in the aftermath of failed U.S.-Canada trade talks and threats of a renewed trade war, says Derek Holt, economist at Bank of Nova Scotia. "Resist the temptation to go to the darkest place," he tells clients in an analysis about the state of U.S.-Canada trade. He says the 50% tariff would represent a "micro shock" to the broader economy, as it targets 5% of total Canadian exports to U.S. Canada's decision to delay implementation of retaliatory tariffs until after Labor Day leaves open the possibility of renewed talks toward a resolution. Holt adds initial CAD weakness and lower bond yields will provide some support to Canadian exporters, alongside an expected dose of federal stimulus. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0704 ET - The Swiss tech industry is experiencing a modest recovery, with an increase in sales and exports, but higher U.S. tariffs threaten to stifle the rebound, Swissmem says in a statement. Since the end of July, the U.S. has imposed a new tariff rate of 12.5% on goods from the Swiss tech industry, which is higher than the levies applied to products from the EU, the Swiss tech trade group says. "Should the tariff differential with the EU increase, the consequences would be severe," it says. "An agreement that does not put us at a disadvantage relative to our most important competitors remains essential," Chairman of Swissmem Martin Hirzel says. (andrea.figueras@wsj.com)

0659 ET - For Canadian wood products companies, exposure to the new U.S. tariffs should be minimal and manageable, says RBC's Matthew McKellar. In a report, the analyst says that the trade friction primarily hits niche value-added products like engineered wood, paperboard and corrugated boxes. For those, operational flexibilities and shifting where products are produced give Canadian producers a buffer against the worst drag on earnings. Meanwhile, major commodities such as lumber and oriented strand board are completely exempt from the new tariffs, McKellar notes. Still, he says that the tariff environment remains dynamic and there is "significant uncertainty around potential further action by either the U.S. or Canada." (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)

0656 ET - The Canadian dollar's losses could remain contained for now following the collapse in U.S.-Canada trade negotiations, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. There was always a risk of a breakdown in talks to avoid U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, so there is unlikely to be a large selloff in the Canadian dollar in the near term, he says. Elevated oil prices also remain supportive. However, the medium term implications of the trade spat for the currency depends on whether the situation intensifies and investors price in greater economic harm for Canada, he says. "Canadian dollar downside risks will intensify the longer there is no resolution to this escalating trade war." The U.S. dollar rises 0.5% to 1.3831 Canadian dollars. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0609 ET - Bitcoin is increasingly trading as both a risk-sensitive asset and a hedge against fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. President Trump's comments about tariffs, Iran and larger household tax refunds reinforce broader concerns about inflation, government borrowing and geopolitical risk, he says. Those forces can support bitcoin's longer-term "hard asset" narrative. However, continued gains in bitcoin require real spot buying rather than forced liquidations once crowded bets on the cryptocurrency falling are exhausted, he says. "That makes institutional flows, regulatory progress and Treasury-market conditions more important than simply tracking momentum." Bitcoin rises 1.5% to $77,406 after reaching a three-month high of $79,455 on Friday, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0604 ET - U.S. Treasury yields decline, helped by lower oil prices and prospects that the Treasury might act again to tame high yields. The dollar rises on safe-haven demand ahead of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent potentially unveiling sanctions against Iran later Monday. Global bonds are enjoying a small rebound but remain vulnerable, Pimco's Marc Seidner and Pramol Dhawan say. "Rising sovereign debt loads, a surge in AI-related corporate bond issuance, and lingering inflation anxiety tied to energy costs--and what that means for central bank policy--all play a role." The 10-year Treasury yield declines 2.8 basis points to 4.709%, according to Tradeweb. The 30-year yield falls 2.6 basis points at 5.249%. The DXY dollar index rises 0.2% to 99.00. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0424 ET - Gulf markets face pressure this week from potential tightening sanctions on Iran and elevated U.S. Treasury yields, Iridium Advisors says. The consultancy says details of what U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has called the "toughest sanctions in history" could push negotiations with Iran further out of reach, while the U.A.E.'s halt to trade and financial transactions with Tehran may raise questions over corporate exposure to Iranian customers, suppliers and payments. Higher Treasury yields could also lift regional discount rates and borrowing costs, weighing particularly on real estate, utilities, infrastructure and telecom stocks. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0420 ET - The U.S. Treasury's attempt to dampen the rise in bond yields under the guise of scaled-up liquidity operations has only drawn more attention to underlying issues, ING's Benjamin Schroeder says in a note. The growing U.S. debt load and the limited ability or willingness to rein in the U.S. deficit have received more attention, the rates strategist says. "While it has been signalled that some announcements to cut back on wasteful spending will be made in coming days, without a big rethink coming from Congress, we are only looking at trimming the edges," Schroeder says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0413 ET - The dollar is at risk of falling ahead of remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole symposium, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. Bessent could provide information on fiscal consolidation plans later Monday after the Treasury announced increased buybacks of long-dated securities last week. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is due to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday. Warsh could continue to provide little signals about future policy, Halpenny says. "That could see the long-end of the bond market suffer especially if by then there has been no credible measures announced on fiscal consolidation." The DXY dollar index last trades up 0.2% at 98.966, having reached a three-month low of 98.557 Thursday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0337 ET - Oil prices fall more than 1.5% as investors await details on expected U.S. sanctions on Iran. "The move could further tighten global oil supplies, with Iranian exports already disrupted and offers to China reduced," analysts at Saxo Bank say. In early European trading, Brent crude is down 1.7% to $91.01 a barrel, while WTI futures slide 2.1% to $85.20 a barrel. Both benchmarks closed last week more than 6% higher as talks to reopen Hormuz hit a stalemate and President Trump announced plans to tighten the economic squeeze on Tehran. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to ​hold a press conference at 2 p.m. Eastern time when he is expected to announce details about new economic sanctions against Iran. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0336 ET - The Canadian dollar falls after trade talks between the U.S. and Canada collapsed. New U.S. tariffs against Canada came into effect at the weekend following the breakdown of negotiations on Friday, while Canada said it would impose reciprocal levies. "As a smaller, more open economy, Canada has more to lose from this, but Prime Minister Mark Carney seems to have opened the door to more fiscal stimulus to support affected business," ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The U.S. dollar rises 0.5% to a five-day high of 1.3831 Canadian dollars and ING sees scope for it to reach 1.3910 before U.S. dollar sellers return. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0206 ET - The fact that the U.S. Treasury is buying bonds to lower yields could prevent markets from fully pricing inflation and fiscal risk, and from reacting fully to Fed policy decisions, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, strategist at Swissquote. As such, it could make the Fed's job of bringing inflation back toward its 2% target harder--something that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh probably wants to avoid. He won't want to look like a fool in front of the entire world, she adds. This week's Jackson Hole gathering might bring some clarity on how the Fed will fit into the administration's plans, she says.