The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0603 GMT - The Australian dollar likely has scope to rise further against its U.S. counterpart, based on technical charts, says Quek Ser Leang of UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research in a report. The Australian dollar clearly broke above the major resistance zone of US$0.7075-US$0.7090 on Monday, the senior technical strategist notes. However, "it remains to be seen if any advance can reach the next major resistance at US$0.7200," the strategist says, noting Monday's breakout didn't lead to follow-through usually associated with a clear break of key resistance levels. The Australian dollar is 0.1% lower at US$0.7097, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0557 GMT - The German Finance Agency is set to defy rising global government bond yields and go ahead with a planned syndicated tap of the existing August 2056 Bund. Commerzbank strategists expect a tap size of around 3.5 billion euros. The announcement of the transaction came Monday, somewhat earlier than expected by many in the market. In the eurozone, usually Finland is the first country to deliver a post-summer syndicated bond issue. "In primary [market], the DFA [German Finance Agency] surprised by announcing a syndicated 30-year tap already for this week," Commerzbank's Christoph Rieger says in a note. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0549 GMT - Rising energy prices amid resilient macro data amplify headwinds for bond markets after key levels were taken out, Commerzbank's Christoph Rieger says in a note. "While the market has repeatedly been bought before around current levels it is difficult to see a swift change of dynamics in the current environment," the head of rates and credit research says. In late Monday trade, the 10-year Bund yield hit 3.219%, the highest since 2011, according to LSEG data. Commerzbank opts for a defensive stance for now, preferring steepeners. "They can work in both a bullish as well as a moderately bearish setting as central banks need to account for tightening financing conditions from historically high long-end yields," Rieger says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0542 GMT - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield extends its recent rise, climbing to 5.326%, the highest level since 2007, according to Tradeweb data. The 10-year yield also rises, hitting 4.742% in Asian trade, the highest level since end-July, Tradeweb data show. Drivers include investor concerns over U.S. government spending as well as a lack of progress toward a resolution in the Middle East, which is keeping oil prices elevated, with Brent oil last trading at $91.47 per barrel, up 0.66% on the day. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0530 GMT - Japan could curb further yen weakness without repeated currency interventions if it signals a commitment to fiscal discipline and an appropriate pace of Bank of Japan rate hikes, says Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management strategist Masahiro Ichikawa. While government currency intervention is typically unlikely to change the broader market trajectory, the recent intervention proved effective because it successfully halted the yen's rapid, disorderly slide toward the 164 level against the dollar, Ichikawa adds. The dollar is last trading at 159.65 yen.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0523 GMT - The U.S. two- to 10-year Treasury yield curve has scope to steepen further in the next three months, potentially to 70 basis points, DZ Bank analysts say in a note. "While we expect the long-end to continue trending sideways, we see room for short-end yields to go lower," they say. The two- to 10-year curve has significantly steepened over the past two weeks as investors have scaled back their expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, the analysts say. The steepening was driven mainly by two-year yields, which have fallen, while 10-year yields remained mostly rangebound. The spread is currently around 55 basis points, with the two-year Treasury yield trading at 4.193% and the 10-year yield trading at 4.741%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0517 GMT - JGB yields are likely to keep facing upward pressure unless supply-demand conditions and persistent inflation fears improve, says Sony Financial Group economist Takayuki Miyajima. Expectations of foreign exchange intervention and the government's potential tolerance for Bank of Japan interest-rate hikes could ease inflation risks. However, "in the short term, geopolitical friction in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding monetary and fiscal policies are weighing on market sentiment," Miyajima says. The 10-year JGB yield last stood at 2.930% after hitting a fresh 30-year high of 2.945% earlier in the session. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)
0512 GMT - The U.S. Treasury's 30-year bond auction last week, which delivered the highest yield since 2001, and the data surrounding it make it worth going beyond the headline, says Barclays' Anshul Pradhan in a note. July payrolls, CPI and retail sales came in soft, and all three data points should have pulled yields lower, the strategist says. "While not unique to the U.S., long-end yields have risen globally to varying degrees, we think three factors are at play: the budget deficit outlook, AI-related corporate issuance, and the changing Treasury buyer base," he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0509 GMT - The scaling back of Federal Reserve rate hike expectations feels "somewhat overdone" given that details of the data were more mixed than headline numbers suggested, say Deutsche Bank strategists in a note. Market pricing of Fed rate hikes for this year has been reduced to just under one hike priced through December. Additionally, there is another round of inflation and employment data ahead of the next FOMC meeting, they say. "Long-end yields remain elevated, with term premia having moved higher and the curve steepening materially," the strategists say. "In the front end, despite heavy bill issuance in recent weeks, funding markets have remained remarkably calm."