The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0941 GMT - U.S. public finances are becoming more dependent on future interest-rate changes by the Federal Reserve, Scope Ratings' Eiko Sievert says in a note. The Treasury's growing reliance on T-bills helps to contain financing costs in the short term but entails significantly higher refinancing risk, he says. Scope expects U.S. public debt to rise to 138% of GDP in 2030 from 124% in 2025. This would be higher than in all eurozone countries, with Italy's the biggest at 136%, albeit lower than Japan's 200%, he says. However, a high debt-to-GDP ratio alone doesn't mean acute refinancing risks. Other factors are important too, including maturity structures and the U.S. dollar's role as a global safe-haven currency, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0917 GMT - Continued hot weather across the U.K. is affecting the way people eat and drink, boosting freezer-aisle sales, says Sally Ball, business unit director at Worldpanel by Numerator. Shoppers are looking to stay cool, resulting in a 15.1% rise in soft drinks spending in the four weeks to Aug. 9, Ball adds in a note. In the freezer aisle, buyers are stocking up on ice-cream, frozen fruit and sorbet, Ball says. Sales of frozen fruits rose 48.1%, far outpacing fresh fruit, according to the note. (aimee.look@wsj.com)

0857 GMT - Markets raise their bets on the possibility of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in 2026. The extended U.S.-Iran war is raising concerns about a prolonged energy supply shock contributing to high global inflation. "Higher oil prices feed into headline [inflation] through gasoline and energy costs, but the bigger issue is second-round risk," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Investors price in a total of 30 basis points of BOE rate rises in 2026, up 5 basis points from last week's pricing, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0854 GMT - A weak U.K. jobs market questions the need for rate hikes from the Bank of England, says James Smith at ING. Hiring in the private sector continues to struggle following last year's tax and minimum wage hikes, he says. "Consumer-facing industries are seeing the sharpest falls in payroll employment." Meanwhile there is little sign that wage growth is about to turn higher. "If the U.K. economy really is picking up speed--as last week's GDP data tentatively hints--then there's little sign of it in the jobs market," Smith says. ING expects the BOE to keep rates on hold until next spring before cutting at least twice in 2027, barring a severe and prolonged rise in energy prices. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0854 GMT - The euro could struggle to rise against the dollar in the near term given higher energy prices and uncertainty ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on Wednesday, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The euro's rally on Monday stalled just above $1.16 and investors will be reluctant to push it much higher, he says. "Despite recent positive economic surprises in the eurozone, the fact that natural gas prices are close to their highs for the year merits some caution." The euro falls 0.1% to $1.1572 after rising to a two-month high of $1.1614 Monday, LSEG data show, driven by reduced U.S. interest rate rise expectations. ING expects it the euro to trade in a $1.1520-$1.1580 range Tuesday.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0851 GMT - European chip stocks fall sharply in early European trade, with losses deepening as the trading day progresses. A basket of European technology stocks lost 1.8%, handing back gains made in recent days as a sharp run off in global borrowing costs weighs on the sector. ASML, Europe's most valuable company, slid 2.8%, while Dutch peers ASM International and BE Semiconductor dropped 4% and 3.15%, respectively. Chip manufacturers STMicroelectronics and Infineon Technologies lost 4.4% and 4%, respectively. French semiconductor materials group Soitec dropped 7.7%. Companies linked to the buildout of artificial intelligence also suffered, with gas turbine-maker Siemens Energy losing 2.8%. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0846 GMT - Despite the U.K. economy outperforming expectations in June, the labor market continues to tread water, Sanjay Raja at Deutsche Bank says in a note. The jobless rate held at 4.9%, while payrolled employees fell by 13,000. A stagnant performance will do little to impact Bank of England rate decisions, Raja writes. "Weakness in headline indicators should keep the [Monetary Policy Committee] stuck on the sidelines for now as markets turn their focus to tomorrow's inflation data." Still, there are signs of stabilization, he says. Vacancies fell in the three months to July, but only slightly. "Vacancies have been moving in a very tight range all year--signalling that we may be near the nadir in jobs demand." Redundancies also slowed, Raja says. (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0841 GMT - The July 2036 gilt has performed poorly in recent sessions leading up to Tuesday's auction of the bond, RBC Capital Markets strategists say in a note. This could provide an opportunity for an improved performance in the near term, they say. The Debt Management Office is due to auction 4 billion pounds ($5.4 billion) in the July 2036 gilt at 0900 GMT. July 2036 gilt yields climb 4.4 basis points to last trade at 5.170%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0837 GMT - The U.K. Debt Management Office's auction of the July 2036 gilt due at 0900 GMT will likely provide insights on the level of demand for long-dated U.K. government bonds, or gilts, Mizuho's Evelyne Gomez-Liechti says in a note. Long-maturity government bonds are selling off on Tuesday due to concerns about a potential extended U.S.-Iran conflict and energy supply disruptions from the war. Ten-year gilt yields hit a 3.5-week high of 5.105%, LSEG data show. U.K. 30-year gilt yields rise to a 3-month high of 5.858%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0813 GMT - Thailand's 2H economic growth is likely to be driven by the artificial intelligence boom and government stimulus, Maybank economists say in a report. GDP expanded 1.9% on year in 2Q, beating consensus and Maybank's forecast. Thailand is among the Asian economies most vulnerable to the Middle East conflict. However, Thailand's AI-driven exports and domestic investment boom has helped to cushion the growth slowdown. Looking ahead, the AI capital expenditure cycle should continue to drive Thai exports of electronics, boosting overall shipments. Maybank raises its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Thailand to 2.4% from 2.1% previously, given factors including a better-than-expected 2Q performance. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - Sterling could extend its losses after data Tuesday showed the U.K. jobs market remains cool and wage pressures subdued, suggesting little impetus for the Bank of England to raise interest rates this year, ING's Chris Turner says. Money markets continue to price 60 basis points of BOE rate rises into next year, LSEG data show. "That should slowly be priced out over the next three to six months, although energy prices will have a big say on timing," Turner says in a note. The July U.K. inflation report is due Wednesday where a lower services number would also argue against rate rises, he says. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.8556 pounds and ING sees it potentially reaching 0.8570-0.8580. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0742 GMT - The Japanese yen falls to a two-and-a-half-week low against the dollar as oil prices rise on renewed concerns about U.S.-Iran tensions. President Trump said he isn't seeking an extension of the 60-day U.S. ceasefire with Iran which expired Monday. He also threatened to bomb Oman as he claimed the Gulf nation might be standing in the way of a peace deal. Low foreign-exchange market volatility continues to weigh on the yen as this boosts demand for carry trades, where investors borrow in a low-yielding currency to invest in a higher-yielding one, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. The dollar rises as high as 159.77 yen, LSEG data show.