Global bond markets might be on fire this week, with smoke from the sales in major economies taking longer term yields to the highest levels since the financial crisis, but the fumes haven't yet choked the bullishness from equity investors around the world.
Bank of America's closely tracked Global Fund Manager Survey, published Tuesday, indicated the highest allocation to stocks in nearly five years, with investors betting on a recalcitrant Federal Reserve, a steady U.S. economy, ongoing investments in artificial intelligence, and double-digit corporate earnings growth.
A record number of investors, in fact, are forecasting a "no landing" scenario for the U.S. economy, with growth and inflation expanding at levels that keep the Fed from lowering rates but likely don't compel them to raise either.
The survey also indicated the highest number of respondents forecasting a boom for the domestic economy, with nearly two-thirds of those polled also seeing no AI disruption to the labor market for another two years.
"Consumer spending remains the primary driver of growth," said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy at Glenmede. "Households are benefiting from a rare confluence of tailwinds, including fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, a still-tight labor market, and a powerful wealth effect as the ongoing bull market lifts net worth to record highs."
Stocks have powered firmly higher since the end of July, with the S&P 500 rising more than 5.8% and reaching a fresh all-time high of 7798 last Thursday. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite, meanwhile, has gained 9%.
Bond market risks, however, are starting to work their way into the list of concerns for investors, despite their overall bullish outlook, amid the global march higher in yields that has dominated summer trading.
A "disorderly rise in bond yields" rose to the the second-highest named concern for investors this month, sitting just below worries over an "AI bubble."
However, investors were also on high alert for a "second wave of inflation" risks, putting the collective issues facing fixed income markets as the biggest investor concern heading into the autumn.
Long dated 30-year U.S. Treasury yields touched the highest since 2007 early Tuesday, and were some 46 basis points north of their late June levels at 5.32%.
Benchmark 10-year yields, meanwhile, touched 4.74% in early Tuesday dealing, extending their summertime surge by 35 basis points to trade near the highest levels in 18 months.
Yield surges in markets from France, Britain, Germany, and Japan have all contributed to a global market selloff that has lifted the portfolio yield on government bonds to 4.5%, the highest since 2015, according to Bloomberg data.
"When yields rise because economic growth is improving, productivity expectations are strengthening and corporate earnings prospects are being revised higher, higher yields can be consistent with a constructive risk backdrop," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank in Singapore.
"The interpretation is different when yields rise because investors require more compensation to absorb large government issuance, inflation uncertainty or fiscal risk," she added.
Midterm election risks are starting to capture investor attention into the autumn, as well, with investors bracing for reaction to a possible Democcratic sweep of both the House and Senate in early November.
A plurality of investors, pegged at around 37%, see the election as stoking bond yields higher while taming gains for stocks, with around 17% seeing the opposite result.
The overarching sentiment of the BofA report was defined by Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist, as "the noes have it: no macro landing, no Fed hike, no AI capex cut ... and no bears."
But we'll first have to see if bond markets say "yes."