Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Aug 19

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2041 ET - Asia-Pacific government bonds edge higher in price terms on possible dip-buying interest following notable price declines in recent days. In Japan, 10-year government bond yield rose as high as 2.945% on Tuesday, its highest intraday level since Sept. 1996. Bond yields move inversely to prices. In coming quarters, however, global bond markets are likely to "remain vulnerable to renewed bouts of volatility," economists at Capital Economics say in commentary. Governments appear reluctant to pursue meaningful fiscal consolidation and central banks seem constrained in their response, the economists add. The yield the 10-year Japanese government bond falls 1.5 bps to 2.920% while Australia's 10-year yield drops 4 bps to 5.0300%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2019 ET - Japanese stocks are lower in early trade, tracking Wall Street's losses overnight. U.S. equities' declines come amid a global bond selloff that has sent long-term yields to their highest levels in years. "Equity investors have finally started to respond by going a bit defensive," FOREX.com's Fawad Razaqzada says in an email. "The overcrowded AI trade is losing momentum as yields press higher," the market analyst adds. Among the worst performers on the Nikkei, Renesas Electronics and Fujikura slip 7.2% each and Sumitomo Electric Industries is down 6.7%. The dollar is at 159.46 yen, compared with Y159.73 around Tuesday's Tokyo market close. The Nikkei Stock Average is down 2.7% at 65604.25. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1938 ET - Japanese stocks may fall, tracking Wall Street's losses overnight. U.S. equities' declines come amid a global bond selloff that has sent long-term yields to their highest levels in years. Analysts say the bond rout reflects various factors such as inflation fears spurred by rising energy prices and growing concerns over swelling government deficits. Nikkei futures are 1535 points lower at 66135 on the SGX. The dollar is at 159.57 yen, compared with Y159.73 around Tuesday's Tokyo market close. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 2.5% lower at 67460.73 on Tuesday. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1831 ET - Cochlear's opportunities for near-term growth are limited by persistent payer constraints, Jefferies analysts warn. They tell clients in a note they are seeing an increase in prior authorization rejections in U.S. healthcare, which the Australian hearing-implant maker will have to contend with. Higher out-of-pocket costs could lead to delays in higher-priced procedures such as cochlear implants, they warn. The analysts also point to external analysis suggesting that insurers denied between 12% and 18% of U.S. standard prior authorization requests in 2025. They raise their target price 13% to 144.75 Australian dollars, but stay neutral on the stock. Shares are at A$141.20 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1749 ET - Australian advertised salaries grew in July at their fastest annual pace since February 2024, according to employment marketplace Seek. The ASX-listed classifieds group says salaries posted on its domestic platform were up 4.4% on a year earlier, led by a 6.4% jump in education and training positions. Seek says advertised salaries were 0.4% higher than a month earlier, up from the 0.3% growth seen in June and matching the monthly advance seen from January through April. The annual pace exceeds the 3.7% growth in take-home earnings recently seen in data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. However, the ABS data was for May. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1619 ET - AI hiring is expanding beyond traditional technical roles, analysts at LinkedIn's Economic Graph Research Institute say in a research note. The need for people that build AI systems is giving way to hiring for individuals that can deploy, manage and apply those systems, the analysts say. "This suggests AI is becoming a bigger part of everyday work, not just a specialized function," they say. There are also signs of growth in AI leadership roles, albeit unevenly, the analysts say. The share of postings for AI Manager and VP of AI roles has increased in recent years, they say. But the pattern isn't holding for every role -- Head of AI roles have remained stable and Director of AI roles have declined in share, the analysts say. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1616 ET - The number of AI job postings has roughly doubled in recent years, and those postings carry higher salaries than non-AI roles, though executive-level salaries in the field are retreating, according to analysts at LinkedIn's Economic Graph Research Institute. AI jobs are among the fastest-growing and highest-paying opportunities in the job market right now, with salaries typically around $177,000, compared with $80,000 for non-AI roles, the analysts say. The fastest pay growth has been concentrated in a few roles, including technical staff and forward deployed engineer positions, they say. In contrast, executive positions, such as "Head of AI" or AI Engineer, have remained flat since 2024, and VP of AI roles have seen listed pay decline from highs above $300,000, the analysts say. (dean.seal@wsj.com)

1543 ET - Treasury yields lose momentum and fall ahead of Fed minutes tomorrow. Bonds are likely to remain under pressure, though, as they face competition from other assets, including stocks, which are expected to keep rising fast, TCW's Jamie Patton says. An auction of six-week Treasury bills shows steady demand in the short end, ahead of a 20-year bond auction tomorrow. Tension in the Middle East keeps oil prices above $80 a barrel. The 30-year yield sheds 0.025 percentage point to 5.284%. The 10-year drops 0.019 p.p. to 4.706% and the two-year slips 0.008 p.p. to 4.174%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1248 ET - A study from The Conference Board shows that federal deficits can affect students through interest rates. The study reflects a high school student who takes out a $45,000 federal loan to begin college in 2028 and another $30,000 loan for graduate school in 2032. The analysts highlight a range of scenarios, from a "good" case to a more extreme one-week government default scenario. Reducing deficits under the good-case scenario leads to a 2.7% decrease in student loan payments by roughly $14,000. Conversely, a one-week government default scenario causes an 8.7%--or about a $44,000--increase in student loan payments compared to the baseline scenario. In 1Q, Americans owed $1.87 trillion in Federal and private student loan debt, a 3.3% increase from 2025. "As the deficit interacts with interest rates for government bonds, all types of loans will eventually be affected," the analysts say. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1229 ET - As global government bonds yields soar to multiyear highs, a new report from The Conference Board highlights scenarios where high levels of U.S. debt impact the lives of everyday Americans. Under its higher-deficit scenario, student loan costs increase by 3.2%, housing costs between 1.9% and 3.6%, and small business loan payments by 7%, compared with the baseline. In the report, the baseline scenario is when the Federal government runs an annual deficit between 6-7% of GDP, following CBO projections. In a hypothetical scenario involving a week-long default of the U.S. Federal government debt in 2029--the year the current debt ceiling is projected to be reached--mortgage rates would exhibit extreme volatility in the years after, before settling at 6.4% in 2036. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1141 ET - Canadian homebuilding activity plummeted in July to the lowest number of starts in over a year, yet homebuying activity in the country appears to be recovery from the weak start to 2026, says Desjardins' Kari Norman. The economist notes the drop in starts was entirely within the ever-volatile multi-unit segment, while single-family construction was about the same as a month earlier. The six-month trend for starts was essentially flat but still the lowest in 15 months and about half the roughly 500,000 housing starts needed annually to restore prepandemic levels of affordability, Norman says. Still, existing home sales in July rose a seasonally adjusted 0.5% on-month and the average national sale price and benchmark price were little changed. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1127 ET - Bitcoin turns positive, with the cryptocurrency now trading up 0.5% to $64,678. A contraction in spot demand for bitcoin has been a driving factor behind the tumble in prices seen since last year, but that contraction may soon end, says analysts with CryptoQuant in a note. "The 30-day apparent spot demand has recovered from -206K BTC on July 23 to roughly -5K today - on the cusp of turning positive for the first time since February 26, 2026," says the firm in a note. Historically, bitcoin prices have climbed when changes like this occur, the firm says. "When spot apparent demand crosses from negative to positive, bitcoin has historically risen," says CryptoQuant, with the token up 18% over the following 60 days after the switch.

At the request of the copyright holder, you need to log in to view this content

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Most Discussed

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10