Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1039 ET - Qatar leads most major Gulf stock markets lower as investors weigh heightened tensions between Washington and Tehran. Qatar's QE Index falls 0.9% and Abu Dhabi's benchmark index declines 0.7%, though Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index gains 0.3%. President Trump has threatened a major new economic campaign against Iran and countries or entities that continue doing business with Tehran, as frustration mounts over the lack of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz or reaching a deal to end the war. Trump hasn't specified what additional measures Washington plans beyond existing sanctions. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1018 ET - Details emerging about the tentative trade pact between the U.S. and Canada means "a green light for growth" for America's northern neighbor, says Derek Holt, economist at Bank of Nova Scotia. Based on some details emerging, per reporting by WSJ and other outlets, Holt calculates the overall tariff rate on U.S.-bound Canadian exports would be 3.7%, compared to the present 5.5% level. On a global basis, the total tariff rate on all Canadian exports drops to 2.8%. The rates were much lower prior to President Trump's second term, Holt says. Still, the result "is next to nothing by way of an incremental overall tariff burden," and rates that "vastly lower" than what the US is applying against other countries. He envisages two Bank of Canada rate hikes in 4Q. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0923 ET - Walmart has received substantially all of the $2.9 billion worth of tariff refunds for which it was eligible, CFO John David Rainey says on a call with analysts. "We've taken a disciplined approach to investing these funds back into customer experience and price leadership, prioritizing investment in grocery and general merchandise categories," he adds. Looking ahead, Rainey notes that the retailer's 3Q outlook reflects the continued impact of pricing actions taken in 2Q, as well as the ongoing prioritization of tariff refunds for price investments. (connor.hart@wsj.com)

0856 ET - Canada avoided disaster with its tentative trade deal with the U.S. but the pact can't be described as a win, says David Rosenberg, head of Toronto-based market-strategy firm Rosenberg Research. Rosenberg says Canada avoided the threat of a 50% tariff on about $20 billion of its U.S.-bound exports. Per reporting by the WSJ, the U.S. is set to provide Canada sizable tariff relief on targeting steel, aluminum and autos. Bottom line, Rosenberg says, is that "Canada is now is paying tariffs it didn't pay two years ago, and giving up retaliatory measures ... in exchange for a reduction rather than a removal." He adds that, at best, some tail risks for Canadian economic growth have been partly removed. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0853 ET - Oil futures extend their rally after President Trump said the U.S. will impose unprecedented economic measures on Iran, with economic consequences for any country that allows any type of lifeline to Iran. Financial support for Iran basically means buying their oil, and that would involve China, Scott Shelton of TP ICAP says in a note. "I worry a bit about unintended consequences, however, as this could mean the Chinese buy even less total oil from the market, cut runs even more, and export even less." Most-active WTI is up 3.6% at $87.43 a barrel and Brent rises 3.1% to $94.47. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0823 ET - Bitcoin rises to an 11-week high, breaking above $70,000, after the U.S. Treasury's decision to increase buybacks of long-dated debt and President Trump urging Congress to pass key cryptocurrency legislation. The Treasury's announcement sparked a sharp drop in Treasury yields and improved broader risk appetite, Trade Nation's David Morrison says in a note. Trump asked lawmakers to pass a "fair version of the Clarity Act" which aims to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets and has stalled in the Senate. Bitcoin last trades up 4.1% to $71,896 after reaching as high as $72,373 earlier, according to LSEG. Ether rises 3.2% to $2,289 after hitting a three-month high of $2,326 overnight. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0359 ET - Oil prices extend gains for a fifth consecutive day after President Trump said he would launch a major economic campaign against Iran, signaling further escalation and little hopes for an imminent deal. In early European trading, Brent crude is up 1.6% to $93.08 a barrel, while WTI futures rise 1.5% to $85.67 a barrel. "The U.S. has no talks planned with Iran, while the Strait of Hormuz situation remains tense, with limited traffic and ongoing disagreement around reopening conditions," analysts at Sucden Financial say. "This keeps an energy-risk premium in the market and limits how far investors can price out inflation risk, even as today's Treasury announcement gives risk assets some breathing space." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0258 ET - Bitcoin stays elevated after reaching an 11-week high overnight after President Trump urged Congress to pass a crypto regulation bill and the U.S. Treasury announced increased buybacks of long-term bonds. Trump asked lawmakers to pass a "fair version of the Clarity Act" which has stalled in the Senate. His commitment to keeping the U.S. ahead in digital assets and openness to considering recommendations around additional government bitcoin accumulation reduce regulatory uncertainty which has constrained institutional participation, Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. The Treasury's buyback announcement pushed yields lower, while consecutive bitcoin exchange-traded inflows strengthened institutional demand, he says. Bitcoin rises 1.1% to $69,831 after reaching as high as $69,994 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1222 ET - Remarks from the US Trade Representative about progress on US-Canada trade talks point to the full reversal of digital policies introduced by former Canada PM Justin Trudeau, says internet-law expert Michael Geist. USTR says a tentative deal with Canada will incorporate "digital trade alignment." Geist, a law professor at University of Ottawa, notes Canada had already retreated from a digital-services tax compelling US streamers to hand over up to 15% of their Canadian revenue toward the domestic arts sector. Geist reckons the Trudeau-era online news law is now likely dead too. Meta Platforms blocked links starting in 2023 to news stories on Facebook and Instagram in Canada as the Trudeau administration law wanted digital platforms to finance media outlets. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1058 ET - The United Steelworkers union welcomes the U.S. decision to pause another round of 50% tariffs on imports of Canadian goods but is calling on Ottawa to hold the line for Canada's workers. Marty Warren, USW's national director, says progress on trade negotiations is encouraging, yet existing tariffs continue to hurt steel, aluminum, copper, forestry, auto and other industries in Canada. Warren says the federal government must protect jobs. "This pause provides some breathing room. Canada must use it to keep pushing for an outcome that protects workers, strengthens Canadian industries and builds a more resilient economy." (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1047 ET - Phosphate-based fertilizers coming from Morocco are arriving to the U.S. after being subject to countervailing duties by the Trump Administration, with the first shipment arriving this week, according to a story from Politico. They were first targeted for countervailing duties in late 2020, but since then ag economics have been under duress amid supply chain concerns stemming from geopolitical instability. Growers hope that this allows for fertilizer prices to rapidly cool off and eases the burden on farmers' budgets for the 2027 growing season. Morocco is the producer of over 30% of the world's fertilizer, with 70% of the world's phosphate reserves. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1045 ET - President Trump's talk of reviving the Keystone XL pipeline through a possible trade deal with Canada may be a reference to South Bow's effort to help build a transborder pipeline called Prairie Connector. South Bow, spun off from Keystone's original proponent TC Energy, has said it will decide by mid-2027 to proceed with a 550,000-barrels-a-day pipeline between Alberta and Wyoming. Canadian economist David Watt, on his Not Just Canada substack, notes the Prairie Connector, as envisaged, would make use of pipe that was set to be part of the Keystone XL expansion. Analysts had reckoned that South Bow's plan might hinge on government-backed financing to account for political risk. Former President Biden revoked Keystone XL's permit in 2021.