Global Energy Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Aug 18

The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1057 ET - Stocks in Abu Dhabi extend gains from the previous session, while Qatar stocks continue to fall, with their benchmark indices rising 0.2% and falling 0.5%, respectively. Abu Dhabi's relative strength looks constructive, supported by resilient earnings and its banking and telecom sectors, says Mazen Abou Ismail, head of trading desk at FFA Private Bank Dubai. Qatar remains more vulnerable given its exposure to regional energy and LNG-related risks, helping explain the continued weakness, he says. Geopolitics remains the main driver of GCC sentiment, but differences in fundamentals, valuations and liquidity are increasingly driving relative performance across markets, Abou Ismail says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

1054 ET - Rising interest-rate expectations for the Riksbank have failed to support the Swedish krona, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. The evidence instead suggests that, in the short term, the krona tends to drive rate expectations rather than vice versa, he says. One possible reason for this is the lower liquidity in Swedish capital markets, prompting investors to sell Swedish assets in the event of geopolitical shocks. Krona movements could also be feeding directly into rate expectations via imported inflation. A lasting end to the Middle East conflict would support the krona relative to the Norwegian krone, he says. The krona would benefit from lower oil prices and wouldn't be affected by the pricing out of rate rises. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

1030 ET - U.S. natural gas futures continue their recent range-bound pattern, falling one day and rising the next, with summer heat-driven demand offset by high production and ample inventories. "Record output and the storage overhang are simply overpowering whatever residual weather-driven power burn is still left in the late-summer schedule," Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group says in a note. "Nothing in the current outlook screams massive incremental power-burn demand." Nymex natural gas is up 0.9% at $2.715/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0940 ET - Fading hopes for an agreement anytime soon to resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict keep oil futures buoyant with both sides claiming to have control of the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping disruption remains a concern for crude oil and product supply, with the drawdown in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to its lowest level since the early 1980s compounding the unease, Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. "Prices stay hostage to Hormuz transit data and any signal from the Iran-Oman channel. A durable reopening would cap upside, while further escalation points toward a retest of the $95 to $100/barrel band for Brent." Brent is up 0.2% at $91.09 a barrel. WTI is 0.9%higher at $85.27.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0856 ET - The sharp increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with 30-year yields hitting their highest since 2007, comes despite recent weaker economic data reducing expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest-rate hike, capital.com's Daniela Hathorn says in a note. Long-dated yields are rising due to risks of persistent inflation as the Middle East conflict raises energy prices. Additionally, heavy government borrowing and growing competition for capital--including debt issuance associated with the AI investment boom--are lifting longer-term borrowing costs, the senior market analyst says. Continued disruption in the Red Sea represents yet more uncertainty, Hathorn says. Thirty-year Treasury yields hit a high of 5.337%, Tradeweb data show. Ten-year yields hit a 19-month high of 4.748%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0848 ET - The rise in energy prices stemming from the Iran war poses a headwind to eurozone growth and the euro, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. Europe faces a terms of trade hit from a further surge in energy prices, particularly natural gas prices, he says. Europe delayed winter gas purchases after the onset of the war and this appears to be backfiring, he says. Drought across Europe is also affecting food production and boosting energy demand. MUFG estimates that the euro is currently about 2.5%-3.0% overvalued versus the dollar. The euro could underperform if the above factors start to impact sentiment and economic activity, Halpenny says. The euro last trades steady at $1.1574. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0835 ET - Bitcoin trades modestly lower along with U.S. stock futures as the prospect of a deal to end the Iran war dims. President Trump said he wouldn't seek an extension of the 60-day truce between the U.S. and Iran, which expired Monday, and threatened to bomb Oman. Markets are showing a more cautious tone as investors contend with rising long-term bond yields, renewed geopolitical uncertainty and some fresh nervousness around AI-related stocks, Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn says in a note. Bitcoin falls 0.1% to $64,274, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0752 ET - The U.K.'s competition watchdog says it is concerned that some retailers didn't pass on price reductions on wholesale fuel to consumers fast enough, and this could feed into high margins in the sector. The Competition and Markets Authority is researching how the Middle East conflict is affecting fuel costs. Its latest report, published Tuesday, says the conflict led to sharp rises in wholesale fuel costs, particularly of diesel. The report says the sector saw more sustained falls in wholesale fuel prices in late May and June, but the CMA is concerned that some retailers didn't immediately pass on diesel price falls to drivers. However, it also says that it hasn't found evidence of retailers taking advantage of the conflict by changing their pricing strategies. (edith.hancock@wsj.com)

0730 ET - Gulf markets are likely to remain focused this week on whether negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz translate into a visible improvement in shipping activity, Iridium Advisors says. Higher oil prices are no longer lifting regional markets uniformly, with investors distinguishing between companies benefiting from tighter energy and logistics markets and those exposed to slower trade, travel disruption or margin pressure, the firm says. The final large wave of second-quarter earnings calls should also remain in focus, with 26 scheduled this week before the reporting calendar thins out, Iridium says. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)

0631 ET - Tuesday's auction of July 2036 U.K. government bonds delivered strong results despite the current weak performance in global sovereign bonds. "Throughout the ongoing geo-political uncertainty, [U.K.] primary issuance continues to remain strong," Aberdeen investment director Matthew Amis said. The bid-to-cover ratio, which measures investor demand, was 3.65 times. The yield tail was 0.1 basis points, which suggested demand for the gilt was strong. Ten-year gilt yields trimmed their rise to last trade at 5.084%, from 5.090% prior to the gilt auction, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0617 ET - Investors expect the Brent crude oil price to average at a higher level by year-end than in July, Bank of America's August global fund manager survey shows. Investors in the survey expect Brent oil to trade at $76 per barrel in a weighted average forecast by year-end, up from July's forecast of $71 per barrel, it says. Brent currently trades at $91.04, up 0.2% on the day. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0558 ET - BHP's full-year results underline new CEO Brandon Craig's promising start, head of markets at AJ Bell, Dan Coatsworth, writes. Copper has driven the miner's performance and has helped deliver a healthy increase in the dividend, he adds. The market will be watching BHP's M&A ambitions closely after Craig's predecessor, Mike Henry, attempted to merge with Anglo American, Coatsworth says. BHP's London shares rise 0.4% to 3,256 pence.

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