DES MOINES, Iowa -- The arrival of late-summer state fairs, like the one here that features a prizewinning boar weighing 1,246 pounds, signals to the political world that the midterm campaign's final chapter is just ahead.

As Iowa's 11-day extravaganza started late last week, the state's Republicans found themselves in an unfamiliar position: trailing Democrats in a top race and facing serious challenges in several others.

Some GOP candidates didn't mention President Trump -- viewed more unfavorably than favorably in a recent Fox News poll of Iowa voters -- during their highest-profile fair appearances. Democrats, meanwhile, are pouring millions into the state's races, as rural economic pain from Trump's tariffs and the war in Iran erodes GOP support amid stagnant grain prices and higher fuel and fertilizer costs.

Iowa, which backed Trump by 13 percentage points in 2024, has a six-member congressional delegation that is all Republican. The Democratic National Committee was so disillusioned with the state that it ended a roughly five-decade tradition of Iowa hosting the party's first presidential nominating contest. (Republicans are expected to keep it first for 2028.)

Just three years ago, Trump dominated the fair as a presidential candidate. His Boeing 757 circled overhead several times even before he arrived on a day when four other presidential candidates were there competing for attention ahead of the state's leadoff nominating caucuses.

This year, Iowa's Republican nominee for governor didn't mention the president in his appearance on the Des Moines Register's political soapbox, where candidates speak to fairgoers and a throng of media.

"I talk about Iowa," Zach Lahn, who is endorsed by Trump, said later when asked about the omission in his Friday speech.

Joe Mitchell, the GOP nominee for a northeast Iowa congressional race, also didn't mention Trump during his soapbox appearance. His district is rated as "lean Republican" by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Lahn has trailed his Democratic opponent, state Auditor Rob Sand, in every public poll this summer. In the U.S. Senate race, Josh Turek, a state representative and former Paralympic wheelchair basketball medalist, led in one poll this summer, and Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson was narrowly ahead in the rest.

"The trend is that we're closing the gap," Lahn told reporters when asked about his summer polling deficit.

The businessman and farmer said he expects Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will join him soon on the Iowa campaign trail. Lahn, like Kennedy, has argued that big agriculture interests are making Americans sick.

Jeff Kaufmann, chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, told reporters that Trump also would be visiting the state before November's election.

Kaufmann, a farmer himself, played down the political damage from Trump's tariffs. "Farmers understand that policies like tariffs that may have some short-term pain are going to have long-term gain," he said.

Besides competitive races for governor and Senate, two of Iowa's four congressional districts are also rated by nonpartisan analysts as tossups.

"This is an opportunity that I have not seen in many years," said Matt Paul, a Democratic strategist in the state.

Part of the state's political instability is the result of two major openings in the same election cycle. Both Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds and Republican Sen. Joni Ernst decided against seeking third terms.

The political atmosphere has also been fueled by bipartisan angst over rising cancer rates and the closure of some medical facilities, forcing greater travel distances for care. Democrats and some doctors blame the closures on Republican-backed changes to federal healthcare funding.

"People are ready for a change," Sand said in a fairgrounds interview when asked about his party's strength in a state that has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006. "Our economy is really struggling with tariffs."

Sand, Iowa's only Democrat elected to statewide office, offers a potential template for others in his party on how to compete in red-state America. He frequently quotes the Bible, owns two handguns, asks audiences to sing a few verses of "America the Beautiful" before he speaks and has pledged to have at least one supporter of his opponent in his cabinet if elected.

Independent voters will be critical for him and other Iowa Democrats. As of Aug. 1, the state had 712,087 registered Republicans, compared with 528,758 Democrats and 559,741 independents.

"Our message is truly resonating with people across the political spectrum," Sand said.

Republicans argue Sand's folksy appeal will wear thin once the intensity of the fall campaign season is fully engaged, and are challenging his suggestions that he is a moderate.

GOP operatives in Iowa say they expect photos from Sand's brief college-age modeling career in Paris and Milan to make their way into ads. Some of the images are nearly fully nude and a bit avant-garde.

Sand, in the interview, said it was a part-time job and not that different from others he had during college.

Jake Miller, a 29-year-old eastern Iowa farmer visiting the fair, said those working in agriculture in his area are stressed "a lot" economically and try not to discuss the tariffs because it can lead to fights.

"Everyone is on their toes and being very cautious about their money," said Miller, a Trump voter who also works in farm equipment maintenance.

Democrat Deb Cronin, a 36-year-old psychology professor from Des Moines attending the fair, said she is trying to keep her hopes in check in a state where Republicans in recent history have almost always been the statewide winners.

"I feel very, very cautiously optimistic," she said. "Polls have looked good before."