The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2104 ET - Baby Bunting appears to have attractive capital deployment options for years to come, Morgan Stanley analysts say. They tell clients in a note that the Australian retailer's decision to invest A$45 million in fiscal 2026 capital expenditure paid off, with sales at its refurbished stores up 18%. Margins are wider and leverage is improved, they add. They point out that fiscal 2027 investment is being managed to ensure positive free cash flow. They see refurbishments continuing, albeit with a limit on annual capex. This pushes the rollout of new stores to fiscal 2028 and beyond, they add. MS keeps an overweight recommendation on the stock and cuts its target price 13% to 2.70 Australian dollars. Shares are down 1.6% at A$1.255. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2044 ET - Macquarie analysts anticipate another near-term share buyback at QBE Insurance. Last week, the Australia-listed general insurer trumpeted its capital discipline and efficiency, indicating that it could have flexibility to return any excess capital. Macquarie's updated forecasts now include a A$400 million buyback from November. However, the analysts keep a neutral rating on the stock, pointing to the approach of the North American hurricane season and a strengthening U.S. dollar. The investment bank trims its target price 2.1% to A$23.40. Shares are down 0.7% at A$22.93. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2030 ET - National Australia Bank's updated forecasts make it the most bearish of the country's major banks on housing credit, Citi analyst Thomas Strong observes. NAB's assumption of 2.5% housing-credit growth in fiscal 2027 compares with Strong's forecast of 3.5%, and sits below the 4%-5% flagged by the other three major retail banks. The difference, Strong assumes, is NAB's expectation that investor credit growth will shrink by 1.4% in the period. More positively, NAB's forecast of 7% business credit growth is consistent with Strong's expectation. Citi has a last-published neutral rating on the stock and a target price of 38.00 Australian dollars. Shares are down 4.1% at A$39.69. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2020 ET - The Nikkei Stock Average rose 0.5% to 69086.56 in early trade, aided by preliminary estimates showing weaker-than-expected 2Q GDP growth. The weaker print could prompt the Bank of Japan to hold off raising rates as soon as next month. Japan's 2Q real GDP grew 0.3% on-quarter, missing economists' estimate for 0.5% growth. "The details were a mixed bag," says Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, in commentary. Among top performers on Japan's Topix, non-ferrous metals sector rose 2.9% and marine transport sector added 1.8%. The dollar is at 159.14 yen, compared with Y159.30 late Friday in New York. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2016 ET - BlueScope Steel's 1H FY27 earnings before interest and taxes, or EBIT, guidance of 860 million to 960 million Australian dollars is above consensus of A$812 million "but lower than some estimates and implied spot scenarios," says Barrenjoey. The steelmaker's 2H FY26 EBIT of A$716 million is slightly above the top end of guidance of A$620 million-A$700 million, and 3% above consensus, Barrenjoey says. The Australian bank expects comments from management, particularly on Australian Steel Products and North Star, could drive the stock Monday. Shares are down 2.3% early in Sydney at A$32.92. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2013 ET - ANZ's reignited growth ambitions raise questions at Macquarie over the resilience of the Australian lender's margins. Analysts at the investment bank point out that ANZ's softer June-quarter revenues are a result of it only returning to lending growth late in the period. This write that this growth in mortgages and business lending may come at the cost of margins. However, they note that ANZ has focused to date on investor and interest-only lending, which may limit near-term margin compression. Overall, they see ANZ executing more strongly than expected on its cost-reduction program in a challenging revenue environment. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating on the stock and raises its target price by 3.1% to 33.50 Australian dollars. Shares are down 1.5% at A$38.32. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2002 ET - National Australia Bank's third-quarter earnings miss could be forgiven by investors, Citi analyst Thomas Strong says. NAB's June-quarter cash earnings were in line with Citi's forecast, but about 2% below consensus. However, Strong points out in a note to clients that markets and treasury income appears to be the driver of the miss. From looking at group revenue and NAB's margin disclosures, he estimates that markets and treasury revenue fell by 10% in the quarter. This is a function of volatility, and the market should look through the miss, he says. Citi has a last-published neutral rating on the stock and a target price of 38.00 Australian dollars. Shares are at A$41.37 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1939 ET - Jefferies expects JB Hi-Fi's stock to fall sharply when the market opens in Australia and weigh on other discretionary retailers. That's because JB Hi-Fi reported an uncharacteristically weak FY 2026 result, which analyst Michael Simotas says is reflective of the challenging consumer environment. FY 2026 earnings missed expectations, albeit modestly. JB Hi-Fi also reported a weak 4Q sales run rate in key divisions. This has continued to deteriorate, turning negative for JB Hi-Fi Australia and The Good Guys. "Outlook commentary cautious on sales and margin and we expect fears of operating leverage to drive meaningful consensus downgrades," Jefferies says. JB Hi-Fi ended last week at A$81.71. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1938 ET - Japanese stocks may rise on lingering hopes for a pause by the Fed in raising rates. U.S. economic data released Friday showed weak retail sales and consumer sentiment, backing the case for the Fed to refrain from tightening monetary policy soon. Nikkei futures opened 115 points higher at 68855 on the SGX. The dollar is at 159.21 yen, compared with Y159.30 late Friday in New York. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 0.6% higher at 68713.80 on Friday. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1928 ET - Australian companies's earnings growth so far looks pedestrian compared to elsewhere, UBS says. Profit growth among companies on the ASX 200 is running at 11.7% on year. That's respectable, UBS says. But once mining and energy stocks are removed, it falls to just 5.5%. In contrast, EPS growth among S&P 500 companies is tracking nearer 50% on year. In Europe, it's 22% growth year over year. "With minimal exposure to AI/Tech, the Australian equity market has become a spectator to what is an unprecedented boom in global profits," says strategist Richard Schellbach. "Furthermore we see the Australian earnings story likely deteriorating over the coming fortnight as a larger body of small companies begins to report." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1922 ET - Property owner and manager GPT's funds from operations in 1H pleasantly surprise Citi. GPT reported FFO of 17.7 Australian cents/share. That was above Citi's forecast of 17.5 cents and was also slightly ahead of consensus expectations. "Reported net tangible assets of A$5.53/share implies a current market discount of approximately 7%--a disconnect that appears unwarranted given the quality of the platform and the operational progress on display," analyst Howard Penny says. GPT's guidance for annual FFO of 35.4 cents/share is below Citi's estimate of 35.6 cents. However, Citi thinks management is likely being conservative. It retains a buy call on GPT, which ended last week at A$5.13. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1914 ET - Insurance Australia Group's share price tumbled to two-month lows following a disappointing FY26 result. Citi thinks that reaction is overdone. "In our view, it still has a solid outlook with growth momentum seemingly beginning to improve and IAG slightly tilting toward growth," analyst Nigel Pittaway says. Citi remains a little skeptical about the extent to which this growth can build and thinks its New Zealand Intermediated business could continue to disappoint. Yet it says "even a cautious view of this still suggests reasonable prospects." IAG forecasts a reported insurance margin of 14.5-16.5% in FY27. Citi expect as a margin around the middle of this range, with no allowance for any upside from favorable weather. It upgrades IAG to buy.