US bond market jitters spark UK economy recession warning

cityam

Aug 17

The consequences of a US debt sell-off would be 'very bad' for the UK (Pic: AP) The UK economy could be plunged into a recession an “order of magnitude” greater than recent financial crises if America...

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The sale represented the highest borrowing cost rate since August 2001 and was substantially more elevated than the auction of 30-year bonds that took place just before the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term.“A recession either as a result of first order effects of increased debt servicing costs or a fiscal consolidation forced by a gilt","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cityam.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"IUSB":"iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF","ABIG":"Argent Large Cap ETF","BBEU":"JPMorgan BetaBuilders Europe ETF","GDP":"古德里奇","XJUL":"FT Vest U.S. Equity Enhance & Moderate Buffer ETF - July","GAPR":"FT Vest U.S. Equity Moderate Buffer ETF - April","USTB":"VictoryShares Short-Term Bond ETF","UITB":"VictoryShares Core Intermediate Bond ETF","BK4588":"碎股","OCTZ":"TrueShares Structured Outcome (October) ETF","BK4213":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BNDW":"Vanguard Total World Bond ETF","AGGA":"Astoria Dynamic Core US Fixed Income ETF","ASGM":"Virtus AlphaSimplex Global Macro ETF","TCTL":"Premise Capital Diversified Tactical ETF","RULE":"Adaptive Core ETF","JPIE":"JPMorgan Income ETF"},"translate_title":"美国债券市场紧张引发英国经济衰退警告","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"XJUL":1.5,"GDP":1,"UITB":1.5,"IUSB":1.5,"BNDW":1.5,"GAPR":1.5,"AGGA":1.5,"ASGM":1.5,"OCTZ":1.5,"JPIE":1.5,"TCTL":1.5,"ABIG":1.5,"RULE":1.5,"USTB":1.5,"BBEU":1.5},"content_text":"The consequences of a US debt sell-off would be 'very bad' for the UK (Pic: AP) The UK economy could be plunged into a recession an “order of magnitude” greater than recent financial crises if America’s borrowing costs continue to climb over the rest of the year, a group of leading City analysts have warned.The US was forced to pay the highest interest rate on its long-dated bonds for a quarter of a century on Thursday, amid growing concerns over the country’s gaping deficit and stickier-than-expected inflationary pressure.Investors demanded yields as high as 5.22 per cent at the $25bn auction of 30-year Treasuries, according to the US Treasury department. The sale represented the highest borrowing cost rate since August 2001 and was substantially more elevated than the auction of 30-year bonds that took place just before the beginning of Donald Trump’s second term.\n\nThe auction has reignited fears that the US’s increasingly expansionary fiscal policy could trigger a government debt crisis on a scale not seen in recent history in which investors flee the the US bond market for rival safe havens like gold.Any sharp repricing of US Treasuries would have enormous repercussions for the global economy, with shockwaves likely across markets with high debt-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratios like the UK.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNews Updates\nStay ahead with our three daily briefings delivering all the key market moves, top business and political stories, and incisive analysis straight to your inbox.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nRoger Lee, head of equity strategy at Cavendish, said that knock-on effects of a Treasury market rout would be “very bad” for the UK, with higher mortgages and corporate debt interest strangling the already stagnant economy.\n\n“A recession either as a result of first order effects of increased debt servicing costs or a fiscal consolidation forced by a gilts crisis would be likely,” he told City AM, adding: “The economic pain in peripheral Europe and Asia during their debt crises was profound.”","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}