Global Equities Roundup: Market Talk

Dow Jones
Aug 17

The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

2013 ET - ANZ's reignited growth ambitions raise questions at Macquarie over the resilience of the Australian lender's margins. Analysts at the investment bank point out that ANZ's softer June-quarter revenues are a result of it only returning to lending growth late in the period. This write that this growth in mortgages and business lending may come at the cost of margins. However, they note that ANZ has focused to date on investor and interest-only lending, which may limit near-term margin compression. Overall, they see ANZ executing more strongly than expected on its cost-reduction program in a challenging revenue environment. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating on the stock and raises its target price by 3.1% to 33.50 Australian dollars. Shares are down 1.5% at A$38.32. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

2002 ET - National Australia Bank's third-quarter earnings miss could be forgiven by investors, Citi analyst Thomas Strong says. NAB's June-quarter cash earnings were in line with Citi's forecast, but about 2% below consensus. However, Strong points out in a note to clients that markets and treasury income appears to be the driver of the miss. From looking at group revenue and NAB's margin disclosures, he estimates that markets and treasury revenue fell by 10% in the quarter. This is a function of volatility, and the market should look through the miss, he says. Citi has a last-published neutral rating on the stock and a target price of 38.00 Australian dollars. Shares are at A$41.37 ahead of the open. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

1939 ET - Jefferies expects JB Hi-Fi's stock to fall sharply when the market opens in Australia and weigh on other discretionary retailers. That's because JB Hi-Fi reported an uncharacteristically weak FY 2026 result, which analyst Michael Simotas says is reflective of the challenging consumer environment. FY 2026 earnings missed expectations, albeit modestly. JB Hi-Fi also reported a weak 4Q sales run rate in key divisions. This has continued to deteriorate, turning negative for JB Hi-Fi Australia and The Good Guys. "Outlook commentary cautious on sales and margin and we expect fears of operating leverage to drive meaningful consensus downgrades," Jefferies says. JB Hi-Fi ended last week at A$81.71. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1938 ET - Japanese stocks may rise on lingering hopes for a pause by the Fed in raising rates. U.S. economic data released Friday showed weak retail sales and consumer sentiment, backing the case for the Fed to refrain from tightening monetary policy soon. Nikkei futures opened 115 points higher at 68855 on the SGX. The dollar is at 159.21 yen, compared with Y159.30 late Friday in New York. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 0.6% higher at 68713.80 on Friday. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1928 ET - Australian companies's earnings growth so far looks pedestrian compared to elsewhere, UBS says. Profit growth among companies on the ASX 200 is running at 11.7% on year. That's respectable, UBS says. But once mining and energy stocks are removed, it falls to just 5.5%. In contrast, EPS growth among S&P 500 companies is tracking nearer 50% on year. In Europe, it's 22% growth year over year. "With minimal exposure to AI/Tech, the Australian equity market has become a spectator to what is an unprecedented boom in global profits," says strategist Richard Schellbach. "Furthermore we see the Australian earnings story likely deteriorating over the coming fortnight as a larger body of small companies begins to report." (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1922 ET - Property owner and manager GPT's funds from operations in 1H pleasantly surprise Citi. GPT reported FFO of 17.7 Australian cents/share. That was above Citi's forecast of 17.5 cents and was also slightly ahead of consensus expectations. "Reported net tangible assets of A$5.53/share implies a current market discount of approximately 7%--a disconnect that appears unwarranted given the quality of the platform and the operational progress on display," analyst Howard Penny says. GPT's guidance for annual FFO of 35.4 cents/share is below Citi's estimate of 35.6 cents. However, Citi thinks management is likely being conservative. It retains a buy call on GPT, which ended last week at A$5.13. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1914 ET - Insurance Australia Group's share price tumbled to two-month lows following a disappointing FY26 result. Citi thinks that reaction is overdone. "In our view, it still has a solid outlook with growth momentum seemingly beginning to improve and IAG slightly tilting toward growth," analyst Nigel Pittaway says. Citi remains a little skeptical about the extent to which this growth can build and thinks its New Zealand Intermediated business could continue to disappoint. Yet it says "even a cautious view of this still suggests reasonable prospects." IAG forecasts a reported insurance margin of 14.5-16.5% in FY27. Citi expect as a margin around the middle of this range, with no allowance for any upside from favorable weather. It upgrades IAG to buy. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1907 ET - Shaw & Partners's verdict on Storage King's annual result and FY27 distribution guidance: short-term pain for long-term gain. Storage King signaled a payout of 4.5 Australian cents/unit in FY27. That was below consensus expectations of 6.0 cents/unit. "The implication is that FY27 funds from operations should be short of original market expectations," analyst Larry Gandler says. Still, Shaw retains a buy call on Storage King, citing its development opportunity. The company has nearly 230,000 square meters of development and lease-up capacity, compared with a mature portfolio of 600,000 sqm. These projects can boost revenue by nearly A$80 million by 2032. "We expect investors to begin seeing this growth materially reflected in earnings from FY29," Shaw says. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1858 ET - A2 Milk's share price falls 10% in New Zealand to approach a two-month low after its guidance for FY27 disappointed the market. A2 Milk signaled an Ebitda margin of around 15% and revenue growth of a mid single digit percent. Citi says the Ebitda guidance is around 8% below consensus hopes, as A2 Milk continues to feel the impact of disruption to infant milk formula supply in China that hobbled its performance in 4Q of FY26. Analyst Sam Teeger says A2 Milk's recovery from this disruption is taking longer than the market had expected. "The revenue growth FY27 guidance of mid-single digits (skewed to 2H as 1H is flat) is underwhelming compared to the multiple that the stock trades on," Citi says. A2 Milk was last at NZ$7.39. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

1843 ET - Australian stocks look set to fall at the start of another busy week of company earnings reports. Local equity futures are down by 0.4% ahead of Monday's session, suggesting the S&P/ASX 200 could keep falling after compiling a 1.6% decline across last week. The benchmark index was dragged lower by shares including Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which tumbled amid a declining outlook for lenders. Ahead of Monday's open, National Australia Bank reported a rise in third-quarter profit but said mortgage applications were down 16% on a year earlier. BlueScope Steel more than doubled the size of its final dividend, and retailer JB Hi-Fi reported a 6% rise in annual profit.

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