The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1410 ET - Treasurys sell off and yields reverse early declines despite data supporting a less hawkish Fed. Consumer sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan gauge, unexpectedly declines, another sign that the economy may not be overheated. Odds of another Fed hold in September approach 70%. The dovish vibes pushed yields down in early trade, but they change direction and are now on pace for a daily rise. The 10-year is at 4.694% and the two-year at 4.167%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1152 ET - Nvidia may report "another significant stair-step in backlog" in their second-quarter earnings call, driven by continued compute demand, UBS analysts write in a note. "Looking at compute through the lens of supply and demand, because the vast majority of hyperscaler capex increase this year is due mostly to memory price inflation, compute supply growth is even further from keeping pace with demand - this is ultimately bullish for NVDA," they write. Because broader debates about AI spending and credit risk are out of Nvidia's hands, investors are going to focus on the numbers--and likely come away with greater confidence about earnings growth through 2028. Nvidia trades down 0.2% at $224.81. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)

1115 ET - The hacks of Coldcard wallets are being monitored by those keeping an eye on blockchain records. According to a report from CryptoQuant, at least 1,432 BTC has been confirmed stolen from 5,421 victim addresses. That's nearly $90M in bitcoin as of Friday. According to CryptoQuant, most of the stolen bitcoin appears to be parked in several wallets. As of Aug. 12, roughly 1,367 BTC remains stored in 311 attacker addresses, this after another 301 addresses offloaded their stolen tokens. Users spooked by the hack of a cold-storage wallet have been fleeing for centralized exchanges, says CryptoQuant. Bitcoin is down 1.2%, to $62,588. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1107 ET - Equity markets got support this week from some better-than-expected economic data--but that wasn't the case for bitcoin. "Bitcoin did not move and remained range-bound within the band it has occupied for most of the past two months," says Colin Basco of Coinbase Institutional in a note. "When Treasuries offer competitive yields, the desks that normally supply crypto leverage and liquidity have less incentive to deploy capital into crypto cash-and-carry trades," he says, adding that this is why volumes in bitcoin trading are light. Bitcoin is down 1% to $62,708. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1042 ET - The Bank of England might need strong evidence of rising inflation before raising interest rates in 2026, Bank of America economists say in a note. The economists expect the BOE to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% for the remainder of the year, given U.K.'s frail growth and weak labor market. "For the BoE to respond we think we would need to see signs that this [energy-price] shock is feeding to strong second round effects via broad-based price rises or wages." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1017 ET - A strong run of core retail sales this year "has come to an end," Pantheon's Oliver Allen says in a note following July's surprising contraction. Although the decline was influenced by a drop in gas prices and in volatile auto sales, plus a shift in Amazon Prime Day to June from July, a fall in control sales and downward revisions to previous months could mark "the start of a significant slowdown," Allen says. "The lift to households' cash flows from tax refunds now is gone, higher energy prices will continue to put pressure on their finances, the underlying trend in income growth is weak, and the personal saving rate has little scope to fall further," he says. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

1010 ET - The Bank of England's process of reducing its gilt holdings, also known as quantitative tightening, could add to gilt-market volatility, Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. The BOE is widely expected to slow the pace of gilt sales and redemptions to around 50 billion pounds ($67.4 billion) for the 12-month period starting in October, from 70 billion pounds currently. "Even if designed carefully, quantitative tightening could keep gilt-market sensitivity elevated at a time when fiscal policy, inflation and growth are all under scrutiny," Munnelly says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0934 ET - Lower gas prices help explain July's disappointing U.S. retail sales, LPL Financial's Jeffrey Roach writes. Sales declined 0.6%, while forecasters expected a 0.1% increase, according to WSJ consensus. Roach notes that compared to a year ago, sales still grew 5%. "Building material spending rose 0.3% and is one category that feeds into the GDP calculation." He says data so far keeps economic growth robust, forecasting a 6% nominal GDP expansion in 3Q from a year ago. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0919 ET - The fall in the control group of retail sales in July, along with downward revisions to growth in May and June, suggests the consumer is looking a little less healthy, according to Capital Economics. In a note, economist Stephen Brown also predicts the decline will further reduce the chance of the Fed hiking at its September meeting. Some Federal Reserve officials have cited robust consumer spending as a reason to remain cautious about inflationary pressures, but this retail sales report may prompt officials to monitor retail spending more closely. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0846 ET - Treasury yields are on pace for a weekly decline following signs of cooling inflation that bolster odds of a Fed hold, not hike, next month. Oil prices edge higher as the supply chain remains choked in the Middle East and the White House threatens Iran with more economic isolation. July retail sales contract 0.6%, following a 0.2% expansion in June. Forecasters expected a 0.1% increase, according to a WSJ consensus. The data reinforce the case for a hold and pushes yields further down alongside the dollar. The WSJ Dollar Index falls 0.4%. The 10-year is at 4.631%, down from 4.640% yesterday. The two-year slips to 4.106% from 4.139%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0838 ET - The Swiss franc falls to a one-year low against the euro, extending a string of losses over recent days, pressured as high oil prices increase the likelihood of interest-rate rises from other central banks. The prospect of the Swiss National Bank leaving rates at zero and threats of currency interventions have diluted the franc's safe-haven appeal amid the Iran war, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. However, the franc's falls could be limited by Switzerland's strong economic growth, she says. Data Friday showed Switzerland grew 1.5% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, outpacing U.K. and eurozone growth. The euro earlier hit a high of 0.9405. Rabobank expects it to reach 0.95 francs in 12 months. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0823 ET - High German government bond yields are driving up yields on euro-denominated investment-grade bonds, LBBW's Michael Kohler and Benedikt Horwedel say in a note. Rising public spending has caused Bund yields to rise, in turn pushing up euro IG corporate-bond yields, the analysts says. Ten-year Bund-yields climb 2.8 basis points to last trade at 3.162%.