AGS WEEK Ahead: Grains Look to USDA Report, While Softs Focus on Supply

Dow Jones
Aug 10
 
 

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of August 10-14 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona

 

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The macro backdrop turned more supportive for commodities, with weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data pushing the dollar lower and stocks higher. Markets now await Wednesday's U.S. CPI and the August USDA WASDE report, which could include corn and soybean yield updates.

Favorable weather, including heavy rain across parts of the Corn Belt, remains bearish for grains, though soybean conditions will be closely watched as the crop enters its key pod-filling period, according to Peak Trading Research. Seasonal trends are bearish for grains but bullish for soybeans and soft commodities.

"Looking forward, traders are weighing geopolitical risks, a supportive macro environment, and solid demand versus better weather forecasts and firmly bearish seasonals," analysts at the firm said.

Wheat futures in Chicago rose 1.6% to $6.50 a bushel in European afternoon trade Monday. Corn futures were up 0.6% to $4.65 a bushel, while soybean contracts gained 0.5% to $11.83 a bushel.

 

SOFT COMMODITIES: Brazil's harvest is progressing well, but excess rain is raising concerns about coffee quality, particularly for arabica, according to Rabobank analysts.

"Heavy rains in major growing regions caused some cherries to fall before harvest, potentially hurting quality and reducing the supply of higher-quality beans," they said.

Export volumes, however, are recovering strongly year-on-year, while global prices remain elevated and volatile.

Meanwhile, Brazil's sugar market is tightening as mills shift more cane toward ethanol, analysts at ING say, citing the latest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry Association. Central-South cane crushing fell 14.5% year-on-year in June, while sugar production dropped more than 26%. Only 44.5% of cane was allocated to sugar, down from 52.3% a year earlier, as sugar prices remained below ethanol parity.

Cameroon's cocoa sector is also facing a weaker crop, according to ING. Production fell 20% year-on-year in the 2025/26 season--the lowest in five years--as adverse weather, ageing trees and declining soil fertility weighed on yields. Cocoa exports fell nearly 35%, while domestic grindings declined 13%.

On Monday, coffee prices rose 0.5% to $3.37 a pound, while cocoa dropped 2.7% to $5,738 a ton. Sugar rose 0.2% to 16 cents a pound.

 
 

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