Telstra Group (ASX:TLS) trades as a long-duration claim on the persistence of a coverage-driven pricing premium, and the durability of those cash flows should be questioned, Jarden said in a Thursday note.

The Australia Competition and Consumer Commission launched a year long inquiry into declaring wholesale mobile access, including domestic roaming and a radio access network (RAN) service. A discussion paper is expected near-term and regional forums will follow.

The regulator has examined mobile roaming three times before in 1998, 2005, and 2017, and declined on each occasion.

However, the scope now extends to a RAN-sharing service which is potentially more intrusive than roaming alone, and satellite direct-to-device and a pending universal obligation are reshaping the investment incentive logic that previously defeated the declaration.

Conversely, because satellite will in time probably close the coverage gap anyway, the argument that declaration will lower prices is potentially harder to make now.

The investment firm retained its underweight rating and the price target of AU$4.60 per share on Telstra.