AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Could Be 63% Undervalued On BlueBird Launch And Rakuten Progress

Simply Wall St.

Aug 04

AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is back in focus after scheduling the August 5 launch of its BlueBird 11, 12 and 13 satellites, as well as reporting progress on a direct-to-cell partnership with Rakuten Mobile...

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The share price is up 7.7% over the last day and 12.3% over the week, yet down 25.4% over the past month and 23.9% year to date. Total shareholder...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"ORBX":"Global X Space Tech ETF","BK4089":"非传统电信运营商","MARS":"Roundhill Space & Technology ETF","ASTX":"2倍做多ASTS ETF-Tradr","ASTS":"AST SpaceMobile, Inc.","WARP":"VanEck Space ETF","IE0009354923.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US VENTURE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","BK4615":"SpaceX概念","ASTN":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Short ASTS ETF","WTRE":"WisdomTree New Economy Real Estate Fund","UFO":"Procure Space ETF","WSPC":"WisdomTree Space Economy UCITS ETF"},"translate_title":"AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) 因 BlueBird Launch 和 Rakuten Progress 而被低估 63%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"WSPC":0.6,"MARS":0.6,"WARP":0.6,"WTRE":0.6,"UFO":0.6,"ASTN":0.6,"ORBX":0.6,"ASTX":0.6,"ASTS":1.98},"content_text":"AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is back in focus after scheduling the August 5 launch of its BlueBird 11, 12 and 13 satellites, as well as reporting progress on a direct-to-cell partnership with Rakuten Mobile in Japan. See our latest analysis for AST SpaceMobile. These launch and partnership updates come after a mixed period for AST SpaceMobile's stock. The share price is up 7.7% over the last day and 12.3% over the week, yet down 25.4% over the past month and 23.9% year to date. Total shareholder return over one year remains positive at 20.8% and extremely high over three and five years, suggesting longer term holders have seen strong gains even as near term momentum has softened. If this kind of direct to device story interests you, it could be a useful time to widen your search and check out 55 AI infrastructure stocks After a sharp swing higher in AST SpaceMobile following the latest launch plans and Japan update, investors now face a simpler question: Does the current price still reflect a compelling balance between long term potential and execution risk? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 62.6% Undervalued The most followed narrative on AST SpaceMobile compares a fair value of $170 per share to the last close of $63.52 and frames the stock as heavily undervalued on long term potential.  AST’s eventual business model should be a mix of carrier service revenue, gateway infrastructure revenue, government contracts, MNO consulting and integration services, and potentially usage-based economics tied to space-based broadband service. Today, however, the financial profile is still transitional. Revenue in Q1 2026 came largely from gateway deployments and government-related activity, and management said 2026 revenue should rise each quarter from those categories plus potentially initial commercial service revenue.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what turns that broad business mix into a $170 fair value for AST SpaceMobile? The narrative leans on aggressive revenue scaling, a shift to recurring margins, and a future earnings profile that assumes the direct to device network becomes a core infrastructure layer for carriers worldwide. Result: Fair Value of $170 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, AST SpaceMobile still faces real pressure if satellite deployment timelines slip or if major carrier partners hesitate to convert agreements into meaningful commercial revenue. Find out about the key risks to this AST SpaceMobile narrative. Next Steps With sentiment on AST SpaceMobile split between big hopes and real concerns, act while the data is fresh and form your own view through the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs Looking for more ideas beyond AST SpaceMobile? If AST SpaceMobile has your attention, do not stop here. Use this moment to broaden your watchlist with other stocks that match your criteria.  Target resilient cash generators by scanning companies that score well on financial strength using the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (46 results). Hunt for potential bargains by reviewing companies that currently screen as 53 high quality undervalued stocks. Focus on defensiveness and stability by checking companies that feature in our 82 resilient stocks with low risk scores.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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