0356 GMT - ANZ's improved capital position and value compared with its peers elevate its appeal among major Australian banks, Morgan Stanley analysts tell clients in a note. Raising their valuation to reflect ANZ's strong balance sheet and lower risk profile, the MS analysts say the bank's productivity agenda under Chief Executive Nuno Matos gives it a better near-term growth profile than its rivals. Even so, they think that investors have low expectations for ANZ's revenue and market-share growth, and see less potential for disappointment than at other large lenders. MS raises its target price 1.5% to 34.50 Australian dollars and keeps an overweight recommendation on the stock, which is up 1.3% at A$37.69. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0340 GMT - Westpac is seen by Morgan Stanley analysts as the most vulnerable of Australia's major lenders to growing margin pressures. The MS analysts tell clients in a note that consumers are becoming more willing to move deposits, and say Westpac would experience the largest margin impact from a shift in transaction balances to high-rate savings accounts. At the same time, the analysts point to management commentary that Westpac wants to win back lost mortgage market share. With competition rising amid a policy driven slowdown in home-loan growth, they see Westpac's margins as especially vulnerable. MS keeps an underweight recommendation on the stock and lowers its target price on the stock by 3.2% to 30.50 Australian dollars. Shares are down 0.3% at A$37.90. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0256 GMT - Macquarie analysts want certainty about where Australia's interest rates and unemployment are likely to peak before turning more positive on job advertiser Seek. Another factor that could form a more constructive view of the ASX-listed business is an improvement in job ad listings, which they expect to fall by about 1% on year in fiscal 2027. Seek remains Macquarie's least-preferred ASX-listed classifieds provider due to risks around listings volumes. The Macquarie analysts tell clients in a note that they expect an adjusted net profit for Seek's most recent fiscal year, which ended June 30, of A$199 million. This is at the lower end of guidance, they observe. Macquarie stays neutral on the stock and cuts its target price 12.5% to 15.75 Australian dollars. Shares are up 4.0% at A$14.62. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0235 GMT - Viva Energy's bulls at UBS say the Australian fuel refiner and retailer is finally entering an earnings upgrade cycle. With an unchanged buy rating on the stock, the investment bank's analysts tell clients in a note that first-half Ebitda was about 10% above consensus on beats from both its industrial and convenience divisions. They view Viva Energy's strategic pivot toward refurbishing many retail filling stations as self-serve 24-hour outlets as a prudent step that reduces its capital-expenditure burden and probably improves returns in the current economic environment. UBS lifts its fiscal 2026 EPS forecast by 8% and raises its target price 3.7% to 2.80 Australian dollars. Shares are up 3.6% at A$2.745. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0216 GMT - AMP's bulls at UBS see further potential valuation upside for the Australian wealth manager from its partnership with China Life Pension Co. Maintaining a buy rating on the stock, the investment bank's analysts point out that China has now surpassed AMP's platforms business as the ASX-listed group's primary profit engine. It contributed 33% of underlying profits for the June half, they write in a note. After reviewing China's pension system, they think that persistent strong growth at the partnership could potentially lead to AMP beating medium-term consensus forecasts. Additionally, they see positive risks from superannuation-exposed Australian wealth flows, capital-management potential and AMP's strategic options for its bank. UBS lifts its target price by 16% to A$2.55. Shares are up 3.3% at A$2.21. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0159 GMT - Woodside Energy's second-quarter performance isn't quite as strong as it looks at first glance, Morgans analyst Adrian Prendergast notes. He says that about half the 14% beat relative to June-quarter consensus revenue expectations can be attributed to increased marketing activity, which he points out in a note is typically low margin. The key driver of the remaining beat stems from growth in sales volumes rather than production, he adds. The Australian energy producer's output looked healthy but Prendergast doesn't see anything to materially change is view. Morgans has a last-published hold rating on the stock and a target price of 33.40 Australian dollars. Shares are up 0.7% at A$32.53. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0127 GMT - Rio Tinto's copper unit costs are running below revised guidance, a possible tailwind for earnings estimates, says Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi. Rio reported 1H unit cost for the copper business of negative US$0.247/pound. That compares to net unit costs of US$0.97/pound a year ago. Rio recently lowered 2026 guidance to US$0.30-US$0.50/pound, from US$0.65-US$0.75/pound previously. That "is significantly higher than 1H26 cost run rate and should be a key tailwind for full year copper Ebitda estimates," says Ravi. Citi has a neutral rating and A$171.00 target on Rio. The stock is up 5.0% in Sydney at A$167.52. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0105 GMT - While Rio Tinto is pursuing rising productivity gains, its target of US$1.8 billion in annualized cost savings by the end of 2026 includes "volume benefits largely already in consensus," says Morgan Stanley analyst Rahul Anand. He says the miner's 1H profit and cash flow beats appear to be largely driven by lower taxes and higher contributions from joint-venture partners. MS has an underweight rating and target price of 147.50 Australian dollars on Rio. The stock is up 4.6% in Sydney at A$166.89. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0045 GMT - A lower-than-expected tax rate helped Rio Tinto's 1H underlying earnings and interim dividend beat market expectations, says RBC Capital Markets analyst James Redfern. The giant miner reported a 1H effective tax rate of 25.5%, down from 34.5% in 1H 2025. The company lowered its 2026 tax-rate guidance to around 25% from about 30% previously. RBC has an underperform rating and target of A$143.00/share on Rio. The stock is up 4.3% in Sydney at A$166.37. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2218 GMT -- Droneshield's bears at Jefferies see the defense-technology provider's latest update as a material miss relative to near-term market expectations. With an unchanged target price on the stock, analysts William Richardson and John Campbell tell clients in a note that the midpoint of the Australian company's fiscal 2026 revenue guidance range fell about 20% short of consensus. They also think that management's target of a 65% gross margin across the full fiscal year looks ambitious given that the company managed only 60% in the first half. They see 63% as a more likely level. Jefferies cuts its target price on the stock by 22% to 1.60 Australian dollars. Shares are at A$1.805 ahead of the open.