Big Asia stock funds turn to laggards to cut risk from AI swings

Winnie Hsu & Samie Modak / Bloomberg

Jul 25

Investors in Asia are snapping up stocks from Indonesian banks to Chinese e-commerce titans and Indian technology firms, trimming bets on popular AI trades which have turned increasingly volatile.(...

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Similarly, M&G Investments has cut holdings in Taiwan while Eastspring Investments has rotated into laggards including India.\nAs a result, Southeast Asian stocks are on track for their best monthly performance against broader Asian peers in 24 years, with Indonesia one of the world's top performers in July. Meanwhile, India is among regional markets that have drawn the most foreign inflows this month.\nThe reshuffle highlights growing caution among investors on the AI trade, which in Asia has been characterised by wild swings in markets such as South Korea. Even as global chip stocks staged a partial recovery from a rout earlier this month, nagging concerns about firms' ability to monetise the revolutionary technology has led more fund managers to seek opportunities in defensive sectors from banks to consumer goods, as well as underperformers including China's internet giants.\n\"The extreme volatility you're seeing in Korea and to a lesser extent Taiwan has made it a little bit more difficult to buy the dip,\" said Ian Samson, a portfolio manager at Fidelity. \"The volatility means that from a portfolio construction perspective, we have to be careful about buying too aggressively.\"\n\nLike Fidelity, Citigroup also recently cut Korean stocks and upgraded their Chinese peers in its emerging-market allocation, citing volatile trading in Korea and the potential for China to benefit as the local rally broadens beyond a narrow group of AI winners.\nKorean shares have slumped more than 21% this month, while Taiwan's have fallen over 5%, with overseas investors pulling about US$4.4 billion ($5.68 billion) and US$19 billion from Korean and Taiwanese equities, respectively. \n\"Kospi VIX remains super elevated and waiting for the leverage holdings to wash out,\" said Matthew Haupt, a hedge fund manager at Wilson Asset Management, referring to the volatility gauge tracking Korea's equities benchmark. \"There are more stable markets to trade themes rather than Korea at the moment.\"\nBy contrast, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index is set for its biggest monthly outperformance ever against Korea's Kospi gauge, boosted by catch-up gains in Chinese internet giants and banks.  \nElsewhere in the region, the MSCI Asean Index has climbed 5.8% this month, versus a near 4% decline in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, putting it on pace for the biggest monthly outperformance in more than two decades.\n\nLeading the Southeast Asian pack, Thai stocks have surged around 30% this year on bets that the country's current government will bring an end to years of political turbulence. In Indonesia, banks have rallied following a surprise central bank rate hike. \nMeanwhile, India has received about US$2 billion of global fund inflows into its equities market so far this month, making it one of the top destinations in the region. Beaten-down shares of the country's information technology firms HCL Technologies Ltd and Tata Consultancy Services Ltd have rallied about 18% and 11% in July, respectively.\nTo some investors, the rotation may be tentative due to longer-term optimism about AI demand and earnings growth. A renewed surge in oil prices also threatens the momentum of energy-dependent markets such as Southeast Asia and India.\n\"We have been trimming Korea exposure progressively over the last couple of weeks as risk/reward became increasingly asymmetric at these levels - though this is tactical rebalancing rather than a structural exit,\" said Yi Ling Ong, managing partner at Golden Horse Fund Management.\nFor one, Alphabet Inc's plans to spend up to US$200 billion this year on AI computing power offered a brief boost to hardware stocks, before a sell-off resumed on Friday. \nNext week, concern around AI spending will face a new test when Meta Platforms Inc, Microsoft Corp, and Apple Inc report their quarterly earnings. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta have forecast as much as US$725 billion in capital expenditures this calendar year, and Wall Street expects that figure to climb to nearly US$900 billion in 2027, according to the average of analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. \nBut for now, the persistent worry that the AI rally has run too far, too fast remains a key driver of less glamorous stocks that offer steadier returns and stronger earnings clarity. \n\"It's just the uncertainty, unpredictability of this volatility,\" said John Tsai, portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments, adding that the next leg of rotation will hinge on \"results from the big US tech companies and their longer-term capex guidance\".\nUploaded by Chng Shear Lane","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}