The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0544 GMT - The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the fed funds rate stable at this week's meeting, and the impact of the decision will hinge heavily on how Chairman Kevin Warsh frames the decision and path ahead, Goldman Sachs analysts say in a note. The relative stability in the long end of the Treasury curve and contained inflation risk premia are vulnerable to an on-hold decision that is accompanied by limited guidance on the outlook or reaction function, the analysts say. Money markets currently price in a 31.5% probability of a rate hike this week, while the majority of the market anticipates unchanged rates. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0536 GMT - Malaysia's tariff outlook could remain uncertain as the U.S. continues its excess-capacity investigation, CIMB economists Chew Khai Yen and Michelle Chia say in a note. They expect the probe to result in additional Section 301 tariffs, potentially lifting Malaysia's headline tariff rate back toward the 15%-19% level originally proposed under the U.S. reciprocal tariff plan. The newly effective 10% Section 301 forced-labor tariff has had little impact, as broad exemptions reduced the share of Malaysian exports to the U.S. subject to the levy to 31.9% from 33.0%, lowering the trade-weighted effective tariff to 5.1% from 5.2%, they add. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0532 GMT - Investors are likely to focus on the number of potential dissenting votes at the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision on Wednesday, LBBW's Elmar Voelker says in a note. "We believe it is possible that there could be up to three dissenting votes, given that a bloc of this size had already voted against the Fed's then 'dovish' forward guidance back in April," the senior fixed income analyst says. A unanimous decision in favor of a wait-and-see monetary policy stance at the Fed would be a bond-positive surprise, as it would shake market participants' current belief that a hike in September is practically a foregone conclusion, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0522 GMT - Investors can be very confident that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will want to sound hawkish and do everything he can to bolster his inflation-fighting credentials, without actually doing anything just yet, BlueBay CIO Mark Dowding says in a note. "This could prompt some further flattening of the U.S. yield curve for the time being," he says. However, with the U.S. fiscal position continuing to deteriorate and the bill for Trump's Middle East war continuing to rise, ultimately this can be a factor which may see the curve re-steepen at a later point in time, Dowding says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0520 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields fall while oil prices slide in Asian trade, as President Trump has put off a major escalation of his military campaign against Iran amid efforts to revive diplomacy to open the Strait of Hormuz. Treasury yields fall across maturities, reflecting lower oil prices, while investors also await the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision on Wednesday. Brent oil falls 4.8% to $92.14 a barrel. The two-year yield declines 3.7 basis points to 4.292%, the 10-year yield is down 4.9 basis points at 4.629% and the 30-year yield declines 4.4 basis points to 5.117%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0516 GMT - The Monetary Authority of Singapore could steepen the slope of its policy band "very slightly" in its October statement, say BofA Securities strategists in a note.The central bank surprised by steepening the slope "very slightly" in July, with the choice of words seeming unprecedented to the strategists. The latest move--estimated to be a 25bp change rather than the conventional 50bp adjustment--suggests a policy preference towards greater flexibility amid an uncertain external backdrop, they say. The MAS likely views the current policy stance as moderately tight, as the move raises the degree of policy restrictiveness by a small margin, the strategists say. The central bank uses the exchange rate as a policy tool for maintaining price stability, given the city-state's small and open economy.(megan.cheah@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 27, 2026 01:44 ET (05:44 GMT)

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