Capital One Financial is set to report second-quarter earnings Tuesday after the market close, and analysts expect the bank to have bounced back from a loss in the same period a year ago as it integrates two big acquisitions that bolster its credit- and debit-cards business.

The report from Capital One, among the largest U.S. banks, will offer a window into how consumers are faring as they face persistent inflation and elevated fuel prices.

Wall Street anticipates per-share earnings of $4.03, up from a loss of $8.58 a year ago, when expenses tied to its mega-acquisition of Discover Financial Services ate into profits for that quarter.

The Virginia-based lender is expected to report adjusted earnings per share of $4.67, according to FactSet. That would reflect a 15% decline from adjusted earnings a year ago.

Analysts see revenue rising 26% to $15.77 billion, FactSet data show.

Investors will have much to absorb from Capital One's report and conference call, from expenses and gauges of borrower health to executives' comments on integrating Discover and financial-tech startup Brex. The deals closed in May 2025 and this past April, respectively.

A shifting macroeconomic outlook and executives' commentary on elevated costs have weighed on Capital One shares, Morgan Stanley analyst Jeffrey Adelson said. The stock is down 17% this year, the largest year-to-date drop since 2019. In the same time, the S&P 500 is up 9%.

"Even an in-line expense result should support sentiment," Adelson, who has an Overweight rating on Capital One, wrote on July 20.

Other bullish analysts are watching for where expenses will land. While UBS analyst Erika Najarian views the stock positively over the next year, she expects loan-loss reserves due to macroeconomic uncertainties to stay "sticky" and for marketing expenses to rise in the second half of 2026.

A measure of loan portfolio health known as net charge-offs will be the key indicator to watch, Morgan Stanley's Adelson said. Net charge-offs, or NCOs, refer to debt that banks view as unlikely to be repaid.

In an encouraging sign for consumers' health, NCO rates improved across the four largest U.S. banks -- JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Bank of America -- when they reported quarterly earnings last week. That should bode well for Capital One.

Its results, along with those from rivals Ally Financial and Synchrony Financial, "will show whether the credit quality improvement seen at the major banks extends past prime borrowers," said Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene. Shares of Ally and Synchrony fell on Tuesday after they released their reports.

Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank, who founded the lender in 1987, said at a conference in June that consumers were in good shape.

"If we just read the news every day, we would have a very negative outlook for the consumer," he said. "But if we didn't read any news, and all we did was look at the data that we see in the economy, and the data that we see on our portfolio, we have a really quite positive view."

At the same time, he said, "inflation is an important driver of, ultimately, the credit health of the consumer. So we are certainly watching with a wary eye toward what happens, from an inflation point of view."

Write to Rebecca Ungarino at rebecca.ungarino@barrons.com

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July 21, 2026 11:23 ET (15:23 GMT)

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