The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1414 ET - U.S. oil stock depletion starts to raise concerns with the U.S. and Iran engaged in renewed fighting that's again keeping oil trapped inside the Strait of Hormuz. The EIA reported a 1.7 million barrel decline in commercial crude stocks for last week, as well as a further 3 million barrels released from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. "The energy picture continues to tighten, with commercial inventories and the SPR falling again," TradeStation's David Russell says. "We're not in crisis territory, but there's less breathing room at a time of intense global uncertainty." WTI is down 0.3% at $79.11 a barrel and Brent is off 0.2% at $84.55. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1301 ET - Canada's push to accelerate major infrastructure and energy projects could be contributing to increased business confidence, says Carolyn Rogers, the Bank of Canada's No. 2 official. At a press conference, senior BOC officials were asked whether a recent string of major projects the Liberal government is pursuing -- highlighted by a new pipeline connecting Alberta to the Pacific Coast -- changed the central bank's medium-term economic outlook. It will take a long time before [the projects] show up in the hard economic data," Rogers says. She says the faster growth projected in the BOC's quarterly forecast is partly based on improved business confidence about navigating the current economic landscape. "It would be reasonable to think that one of the things contributing to that is some of these larger project announcements," Rogers adds. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1238 ET - Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh addresses an array of topics in Senate testimony, including inflation, bank regulation and AI's impact on the labor force. Warsh was pressed repeatedly on the Fed's new productivity task force, specifically on concerns about whether it includes Americans who will be directly affected by the onset of AI adoption. "I would expect before they come to their conclusions, they are going to hear from folks that will be affected," Warsh said. Warsh continued: "If you think they have a credibility deficit, I don't...we will make sure to take both parts of our dual mandate in consideration of their output." (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

1127 ET - The forward-looking language in the Bank of Canada's policy statement is ambiguous, with the central bank pledging to maintain price stability but leaving the timing and direction of the next interest rate move open, TD Securities says. TD reckons that makes sense for the central bank to maintain optionality given elevated uncertainty. And the bank's statement gives the impression the current policy setting will be appropriate into at least the near future, leaving TD to continue to anticipate two quarter percentage point rate increases in the first quarter next year. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1120 ET - To no one's surprise, the Bank of Canada again left its overnight rate at 2.25%. The bigger news, says KPMG Canada's Ali Jaffery, is the central bank's tone is a little more upbeat about the economy's prospects than it was in April. This cautiously optimistic tone is based on encouraging recent data that show the economy expanding again and job market slack being slowly absorbed, Jaffery says. The economist notes the bank sees the economy slowly adapting to trade and population shocks and it doesn't appear overly worried about price pressures. The upshot is he expects interest rates to be on hold for the remainder of the year. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1116 ET - Canada's central bank is in a bind as it navigates a weak domestic economy, higher inflation from the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and elevated trade policy and geopolitical uncertainty, Oxford Economics' Michael Davenport says. Yet for all that, the economist expects soft core inflation, excess slack in the economy and prolonged trade policy uncertainty to keep the Bank of Canada on hold until late 2027. The bank has now left its policy rate unchanged six times running, though markets are still pricing in one quarter percentage point rise before year-end, says Davenport, who argues nearterm risks are more skewed to the downside and could lead to rate cuts if the economy stays weak and core inflation remains subdued. (robb.stewart@wsj.com, @RobbMStewart)

1113 ET - A recent run of firmer data in Canada, as well as robust financial markets, has the Bank of Canada a bit more upbeat on the near term outlook but not enough to convincingly shift the medium-term view, Bank of Montreal's Douglas Porter says. The economist says that until there are clear signs that the country's output gap is closing on a consistent basis, it is going to be challenging for the central bank to turn more hawkish. And he adds volatility in energy prices is also keeping the BoC on high alert. "The bank is firmly on hold, and we expect them to remain there through the rest of 2026, assuming that oil prices don't flare dramatically higher from here," Porter says. (robb.stewart@wsj.com, @RobbMStewart)

1105 ET - Both upside and downside risks for Canada are getting smaller, with growth improving even as inflation has remained well anchored around 2%, Ninepoint Partners' Etienne Bordeleau-Labrecque says. So while the tone of the Bank of Canada's comments accompanying its decision to leave interest rates steady are neutral, the portfolio manager says the odds are tilted toward an eventual rate increase. For interest rates, Bordeleau-Labrecque says it means that the Canadian bond market has materially outperformed the U.S. market lately. He expects this outperformance to reverse as better data comes in, gradually pushing the market to price-in rate increases late in 2026 or early 2027. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1056 ET - U.S. technology and telecommunications sectors have come under pressure in recent weeks, causing the U.S. investment-grade credit segment to underperform high-yield credit, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. U.S. investment-grade credit spreads have been widening at a greater pace than their high-yield peers due to weakness in the tech and telecommunications industries, he says. The two sectors could continue to face pressure in the coming weeks as companies release their earning reports, Valencia says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

1055 ET - Bank of Canada's decision to keep the policy rate at its current level signals that officials have no intention to respond to energy-driven inflation with interest-rate increases, says Thomas Ryan from Capital Economics. The economist says the BOC decision, and accompanying communications, signals officials remain preoccupied with soft labor-market conditions and increased spare capacity. "This reinforces our view that the BOC will remain on hold this year," Ryan says, adding that near-term adjustments to the rate policy appear to be off the table. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1045 ET - Desjardins continues to anticipate the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines through the rest of the year, after leaving the policy interest rate unchanged a sixth time in a row. Economist Royce Mendes notes the tone of the central bank's communications is very neutral, though markets are treating the releases as dovish likely because the bank removed reference to consecutive rate increases. Traders are pricing in a roughly 67% chance the Bank of Canada raises rates. Mendes continue to disagree, arguing the probability of rate cuts is at least as likely as rate rises. Still, he says significant changes in the outlook for oil prices or trade with the U.S. could swing the view. (robb.stewart@wsj.com, @RobbMStewart)

1037 ET - The Bank of Canada is turning positive about the economic outlook, says Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at forex firm Corpay, after reviewing the central bank's decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%. Updated projections indicate BOC analysts think GDP grows 0.7% this year after a 1Q nadir, with expansion accelerating to 1.8% in both 2027 and 2028. Headline inflation is seen staying elevated in the coming months as energy prices feed through, Schamotta says, adding officials aren't seeing "broad spillovers" in core categories. Gov. Tiff Macklem, in remarks ahead of a press conference, drops references to rate hikes and rate cuts, which Schamotta says is a sign that the BOC "now sees risks to its mandate beginning to diminish." (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 15, 2026 14:14 ET (18:14 GMT)

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