The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1024 GMT - Investors are betting on the Bank of England increasing interest rates in November as the U.K. economy shows resilience. The U.K. monthly GDP rose by 0.1% in May, up from a 0.1% contraction in April."The U.K. economy weathered the rise in energy prices and mortgage rates caused by the Iran war better than we had feared," Berenberg's Andrew Wishart says in a note. The Middle East conflict and inflation concerns are also driving expectations of the BOE raising interest rates. Markets price in a total of 38 basis points of BOE interest rate rises in 2026, with the first quarter-point increase fully priced in for November, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0921 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar edge higher, reversing some of their previous falls. Yields and the dollar fell Wednesday after June U.S. producer price data echoed Tuesday's below-forecast CPI figures. "Together the two reports pulled yields and the dollar lower as inflation concerns abated to some extent," DHF Capital S.A's Bas Kooijman says in a note. Markets will monitor incoming data for confirmation of a sustained trend of slowing inflation. However, ongoing Middle East tensions threaten to push oil prices higher again, he says. The two-year Tresury yield rises 2.8 basis points to 4.155%, while the 10-year yield rises 2.4 basis points to 4.568%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 100.537. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0918 GMT - Sterling's appreciation against the euro looks somewhat stretched, Societe Generale analysts say in a note. Media reports that U.K. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood could become treasury chief could explain some of sterling's gains linked to investors closing earlier bets against the currency, they say. However, the scale of the move is hard to justify relative to government bond yield spreads, they say. The euro rises 0.2% to 0.8478 pounds after reaching a 13-month low of 0.8453 Wednesday, LSEG data show. Technically, the next projections are located at 0.8435 while 0.8545 may provide resistance on any rebound, the analysts say.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0836 GMT - The euro has limited scope to extend recent gains against the dollar unless there are clear signs of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, ING's Francesco Pesole says in a note. The rise in gas prices, which has a bigger impact on the eurozone's terms of trade than crude prices, should prevent the euro from building any idiosyncratic strength, he says. "We expect euro-dollar sellers to emerge around the $1.1500 area, and see a greater chance of range-bound stabilization at this stage rather than a break higher. " The euro trades flat at $1.1463 after reaching a four-week high of $1.1482 Thursday, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0755 GMT - Sterling's recent appreciation appears driven more by positioning adjustments than a major assessment of the U.K.'s prospects, ING's Chris Turner says in a note. Positioning data recently showed speculators running the shortest sterling positions, or bets on a weaker currency, since 2017, he says. There is scope for the euro to reach 0.8400 pounds in the near term after hitting a 13-month low of 0.8453 Wednesday, he says. However, the euro could rise to 0.8600-0.8610 pounds later this month if positioning activity fades and investors return their focus to the soft economic picture and the prospect of the Bank of England avoiding interest-rate rises, he says. The euro last trades up 0.1% at 0.8474 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0739 GMT - Bitcoin eases slightly after reaching a three-week high Wednesday on the reduced prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates after softer inflation data. The U.S. producer price index unexpectedly fell 0.3% in June, data showed Wednesday. It followed Tuesday's lower-than-forecast consumer prices data. While the data dampen rate rise bets, the flaring of U.S.-Iran tensions keep investors cautious over risky assets. Bitcoin falls 0.4% to $64,667 after reaching as high as $65,524 Wednesday, LSEG data show. "The $65,000-$66,000 area remains an important resistance zone, meaning bitcoin still needs sustained spot demand and stronger institutional inflows to convert the breakout into a durable upward trend rather than a short-lived positioning move," Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam says in a note. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0724 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds climb after GDP data showed the economy grew in May. The U.K. economy expanded by 0.1% in May, up from a 0.1% contraction in April, showing signs of resilience which potentially raises the possibility of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months. "Despite fears that momentum in the U.K. economy had faded, it has surprised with growth of 0.1% in May," Quilter's Lindsay James says in a note. Markets fully price in one-quarter point BOE interest rate increase in November, LSEG data show. Ten-year gilt yields rise 1.5 basis points to last trade at 4.966%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0722 GMT - The dollar remains near the four-week low reached Wednesday after lower-than-expected U.S. wholesale inflation data added to signs that price pressures are easing. The producer price index dropped 0.3% in June, against expectations for zero growth. It follows data Tuesday that showed consumer price inflation cooled more than expected in June. The data prompted markets to pare expectations for U.S. interest-rate rises. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh pushed back against the notion that AI investments could lead to persistent inflation in the second day of his two-day testimony before Congress Wednesday. The DXY dollar index trades steady at 100.488, having reached a low of 100.353 Wednesday. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0707 GMT - The U.K. economy grew by 0.1% month-on-month in May, up from a 0.1% contraction in April. This indicates economic resilience, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood says in a note. "Output is rising comfortably above the MPC's assumptions, so slack is probably building slowly if at all," he says. The growth raises the possibility of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months, Wood says. Markets fully price in one quarter-point BOE rate increase in November, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0701 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields are marginally higher in opening trade, reflecting moves in U.S. Treasury yields overnight. Thursday's eurozone data calender is thin, while government bond supply will come from Spain and France. Brent oil prices appear to have stabilized around $85 per barrel, but prices of refined products continue to rise and European natural gas prices have also increased, Danske's Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen says in a note. "Combined with the recent flare-up in tensions and break of the ceasefire, this should keep the European Central on track to deliver an additional hike in September while we think a move in July is pre-emptive," she says. The 10-year Bund yield rises 0.8 basis points to 3.099%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0657 GMT - The U.S. dollar seems to be in a downward corrective phase against its Singapore counterpart, given its recent pullback below the 21-day exponential moving average, says Quek Ser Leang of UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research in a research report. A break of the greenback below the 55-day EMA, which is now near 1.2865 Singapore dollars, could possibly trigger a deeper correction, though not a major reversal, the senior technical strategist says. However, weekly moving average convergence divergence indicator is still comfortably in positive territory, so any U.S. dollar decline is expected to encounter solid support at June's low of S$1.2805, the strategist adds. The U.S. dollar is flat at S$1.2881, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0652 GMT - Sterling is little moved after data showed the economy grew 0.1% month-on-month in May as expected, with the focus on U.K. politics. This follows a 0.1% contraction in April. The data highlight how fragile the U.K.'s economic recovery remains, Ebury's Samuel Edwards says in a note. The recent resurgence in Middle East tensions is keeping businesses on tenterhooks, he says. Sterling trades steady at $1.3533 and the euro rises 0.1% to 0.8471 pounds, both little changed after the data. The euro hit a 13-month low of 0.8453 pounds on Thursday after media reports that potential prime minister in-waiting Andy Burnham could choose a treasury chief who is less likely to favor expansionary fiscal policy.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 16, 2026 06:24 ET (10:24 GMT)

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