The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0951 ET - The dollar is at risk of falling as the Federal Reserve is likely to avoid raising interest rates this year, ING analysts say in a note. The dollar has recently strengthened on expectations that the Fed will lift rates. "ING's take is that the Fed will ultimately ride out this inflation spike and keep rates unchanged heading into 2027." In contrast ING expects the European Central Bank to raise rates again in September. This will reduce the cost of buying protection against the risk of a weaker dollar, the analysts say. The euro last trades up 0.2% at $1.1430 and ING expects it to reach $1.17 in three months. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0946 ET - The Swiss National Bank could continue to emphasize its willingness for interventions to prevent the franc from rising, Rabobank's Jane Foley says in a note. While the franc is softer versus the dollar and the euro relative to the start of the Iran war, the SNB is "unlikely to sit back and relax" with interventions remaining a risk, she says. Nevertheless, the dollar has been the preferred safe-haven currency during the war while European Central Bank has raised interest rates, providing some relief to the SNB. The dollar rises 0.2% to 0.8099 francs, having reached a 12-day high of 0.8108 overnight, LSEG data show. The euro rises 0.3% to 0.9251 francs after earlier hitting a three-week high of 0.9258. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0914 ET - Treasury yields rise as renewed tensions in the Middle East raise uncertainties. U.S. and Iran exchange fire over the weekend and crude prices rise 4%, clouding the outlook for inflation and interest rates. Fed Chairman Warsh addresses the House tomorrow and the Senate Wednesday. Inflation data is expected to cool down, in a WSJ consensus. CPI is due tomorrow and PPI on Wednesday. The WSJ Dollar Index is flat. The 10-year rises to 4.585% from Friday's settle of 4.568%. The two-year increases to 4.231% from 4.208%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0906 ET - Canadians are venturing into the U.S., but travel to their closest neighbor remains sharply lower in the wake of the Trump administration's threats and tariffs. Preliminary data indicate Canadian-resident return trips to the U.S. totaled about 1.7 million in June, up 3.2% on last year. This marks a third consecutive rise, driven in June by a 5.2% increase in journeys by vehicle that offset a 3.2% drop in travel by air, Statistics Canada says. However, compared with June 2024, Canadian-resident travel to the U.S. is down 28.7%, including a 29.6% fall in trips by automobile and 25% drop by air. Canada the same month did see a strong rise in visits spurred by the FIFA World Cup: teams from 15 overseas countries played in matched in Vancouver and Toronto and air travel from those countries was up 29,500, or 32.5% year-over-year. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0857 ET - Yields on 10-year U.K. government bonds, or gilts, could trade in narrow ranges around 4.80% in the near term, J.P. Morgan analysts say in a note. The risk of a significant selloff in gilts looks limited due to the lack of a catalyst, the analysts say. Political concerns appear contained for now as Andy Burnham is widely expected to be appointed the new U.K. prime minister on July 20, they say. Ten-year gilt yields rise 5.2 basis points to last trade at 4.935% due to rising oil prices, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0849 ET - Spreads on dollar-denominated credit widened last week, mainly due to increased credit supply, BNP Paribas strategists say in a note. Heavy debt issuance by massive cloud service providers, or hyperscalers, caused a widening in dollar investment-grade credit spreads, the strategists say. Focus will be on further corporate guidance on AI-linked capital expenditure, the strategists say. BNP Paribas strategists have an underweight recommendation on hyperscaler credit. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0807 ET - Marine Le Pen's surprise decision to run as the far-right Rassemblement National candidate in France's presidential election brings the country's public debt sustainability back into focus, Point72's Soren Radde says in a note. France stands out in its large primary deficit, the widest among major eurozone economies. The country's government must maintain the 2026 deficit-reduction effort for at least five straight years to have a chance at stabilizing France's debt ratio below the 118% of GDP that could be reached this year, Radde says. RN's past fiscal plans would create significant upside risks to that scenario, suggesting French government bonds could come under pressure unless Le Pen signals a change of fiscal policy, he says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

0729 ET - Bitcoin falls as U.S. stock futures decline amid renewed weakness in artificial intelligence stocks and a new round of attacks between the U.S. and Iran. "A late rally for cryptocurrencies last week has failed to push on into the new week, a reflection of broader risk-off concerns in global markets," IG analyst Chris Turner says in a note. Crypto markets faces a repeat of May's selloff if the positive momentum over the past two weeks fades, he says. A full-blown resumption of hostilities in the Middle East wouldn't help matters, he says. Bitcoin falls 1.7% to $63,049, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0727 ET - The cost of insuring Bahrain's and Egypt's sovereign debt against default climbs as Middle East hostilities flare up. The U.S. and Iran resumed attacks in the Middle East, raising concerns about renewed conflict in the region and causing investors to exercise caution. Bahrain's five-year sovereign credit default swaps rise 1 basis point to 271bps, S&P Global Market Intelligence data show. Egypt's five-year sovereign CDS costs climb 3bps to 280bps. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0725 ET - The Turkish lira faces further weakness as Turkey's central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates in response to elevated inflation, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says in a note. Oil prices are rising again amid renewed U.S.-Iran tensions, reversing part of the brief relief which had helped inflation moderate to 32.1% in June, he says. This could resurrect currency market demand for higher rates or at least unchanged rates, he says. However, central bank Governor Fatih Karahan already seems keen to discuss future rate cuts and monetary policy remains constrained by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's preference for lower rates, he says. The dollar rises 0.1% to 46.9973 lira after reaching a record high of 47.0054 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0709 ET - The Bank of England monetary policy committee members could signal a preference for an interest-rate increase in the coming months given rising oil prices, Barclays analysts say in a note. The U.S. struck Iranian targets over the weekend and Iran launched strikes on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. "We think the increased tensions in the Middle East and rise in oil prices this week will keep the risk of a further inflationary impulse forefront in the minds of MPC members," they say. Markets fully price in one quarter-point BOE rate increase in 2026, and a 28% chance of a second rate increase by year-end, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0639 ET - U.S. Treasury yields edge higher but retreat from highs earlier in the day while the dollar trades steady as markets absorb the prospect of a new phase of military escalation in the Middle East. "The week ahead now becomes critical because the market needs to know whether the oil shock is feeding into the inflation data or simply tightening financial conditions through sentiment," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. The two-year Treasury yield rises 1 basis points to 4.216%, having hit 4.239%, the highest level since February 2025, earlier in the day, according to Tradeweb data. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.2 basis points at 4.570%. The DXY dollar index is steady at 100.943, having earlier traded higher. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 13, 2026 09:51 ET (13:51 GMT)

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