The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1121 ET - Canadian trade flows continue to be shaped by the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy, though the broader expectation remains that trade will become less of a drag on Canadian growth than it was in 2025 as the international environment gradually stabilizes, Royal Bank of Canada's Abbey Xu and Nathan Janzen say. The country's goods-trade surplus widened to about C$4.2 billion in May from the prior month's revised C$3.4 billion, as exports rose 0.9% and imports fell 0.2%. The economists say export volumes excluding price effects fell 0.5% for the month but are still tracking a large increase in the second quarter as a whole. Import volumes edged lower as well, albeit mainly thanks to a pullback in gold imports, Xu and Janzen say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1025 ET - A further widening of Canada's goods-trade surplus to a four-year high isn't as good as it first looks, since exports in volume terms were essentially unchanged, says Capital Economics' Ariane Curtis. She believes the only positive is that the rise in import volumes for May suggests domestic demand is gradually improving. Curtis adds the trade data look to be consistent with the flash estimate of a modest 0.1% on-month rise in GDP for May. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

1020 ET - Canada has clearly snapped out of its two-quarter GDP funk with net trade roaring back to life, in part due to higher oil prices, says Robert Kavcic, economist at BMO Capital Markets. Based on Statistics Canada's trade report for May, exports rose 0.9%--and a solid 26% from a year ago. Energy sales account for the bulk of the increase, Kavcic says. Volumes were weak in May, but nevertheless Kavcic estimates net trade will "add meaningfully" to 2Q growth, of up to 2.0 percentage points. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

1008 ET - After an initial push to regain customers and clear excess inventories, Persian Gulf producers are likely to moderate price competition to prevent oil prices falling much below $70 a barrel, says Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank. "Much will depend on China, whose imports fell dramatically during the war, and how its refiners and state buyers respond in the coming months," the head of commodities strategy says. China has become an important price stabilizer in recent years, increasing purchases for strategic and commercial storage when prices are low and scaling back imports when prices rise sharply. Hansen says he expects China to approach refilling with some caution as it wants to avoid triggering a sudden boost to prices. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1004 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are steady in early trade with the market focused on summer weather and power-sector use. "Near-term weather-driven demand has eased from last week's highs, leaving traders without much new fundamental direction," Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "Until forecasts show another sustained stretch of major heat, or storage data begins to materially tighten the balance, price action is likely to remain choppy and contained." Nymex natural gas is flat at $3.245/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0944 ET - Oil futures are higher after an Iranian attack on ships trying to cross the Strait of Hormuz on the Omani side, a sign of Iran's determination to control the waterway. "Although the oil market's response to the headlines has been muted and limited to the crude markets, this event is highlighting a continued major difference between the U.S. and Iran as to who controls the strait," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Crude futures are holding just above their pre-war levels as oil shipments continue through the strait. WTI is up 1% at $69.25 a barrel and Brent rises 1.1% to $72.80.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0937 ET - Treasurys sell off, sending yields higher, as oil prices tick up following Iran's attack on ships near Hormuz. The U.S. trade deficit widens in May, to $77.6 billion from April's revised $54.6 billion. In a week relatively light on economic indicators, markets await Fed minutes tomorrow. The WSJ Dollar Index is flat, as the greenback weakens slightly against the Japanese yen. The 10-year yield is at 4.495%, up from yesterday's settle of 4.479%. The two-year rises to 4.139% from 4.124%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0922 ET - New York Fed President John Williams reiterates his view that monetary policy is well positioned to achieve the Fed's dual mandate goals in an interview on Fox Business. Regarding the labor market, he says he sees stable, solid growth. While acknowledging inflation is still too high, he says "I do feel a little bit more positive about the near-term inflation outlook because of the energy price declines that we're going to see."(jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0727 ET - Shell's better-than-expected integrated gas production guidance triggers a sense of relief among investors, AJ Bell's Dan Coatsworth writes. The second-quarter update is only a teaser designed to guide the market, he adds. Shell lifted its output estimate slightly to between 610,000 and 650,000 barrels of oil-equivalent a day due to strong production at assets outside of the Middle East. It had previously guided for 580,000 to 640,000 BOE a day. The unit produced 909,000 BOE a day in the first quarter. Shares rise 2.5% to 2,985.50 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0624 ET - Bitcoin's recent rebound could prove limited and temporary, ING technical analyst Roelof-Jan van den Akker says in a note. The cryptocurrency rose to a two-week high of $64,539 overnight, rebounding from the 21-month month low of $57,775 reached July 1, according to LSEG. It last trades down 0.8% at $63,329. Bitcoin's appreciation potential looks capped around the important resistance zone between the horizontal barrier at $65,670 and the flat exponential moving average-200 line, currently at $68,603, he says. ING expects a resumption of bitcoin's previous downtrend with a break below the July 1 low in the near-term and towards $47,705. "Investors should also be mindful of the implications of a weekly close below the crucial horizontal support level at $54,450," he says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0620 ET - U.S. Treasury yields rise and the dollar edges up amid fresh tensions in the Middle East and higher oil prices. "Renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with a ship being attacked, sent oil prices higher and kept traders on watch for further developments," Empire FX's Crispus Nyaga says in a note. A re-escalation in tensions could support the dollar through safe-haven demand and raise concerns over inflationary pressure from higher energy costs, the analyst says. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's minutes of the June meeting, due Wednesday, could shape near-term expectations for both currency and bond markets, Nyaga says. The 10-year Treasury yield rises 1.4 basis points to 4.492%, according to Tradeweb. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 100.971. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0537 ET - German industrial data point to broad-based strength in the first two months of the second quarter, despite the jump in energy prices due to the Iran war, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen says in a note. Industrial production climbed 0.9% on month in May, after a 0.2% increase in April. That puts German manufacturing on track for a decent second quarter, and signals upside risk to GDP growth, he says. Survey data has softened in recent months, with the manufacturing PMI and the IFO recent production index subdued in May and June. "But we still think that production rose over the second quarter as a whole," Vistesen says. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 07, 2026 11:21 ET (15:21 GMT)

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