Major ASX miner reduces aluminium exposure

Morning Star AU

Jul 06

South32 (ASX.S32) sold its bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets (except Mozal Aluminium) to Alcoa for up to USD 5.6 billion, including debt assumed and contingent consideration. Alcoa is entitled to ...

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Alcoa is entitled to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/major-asx-miner-reduces-aluminium-exposure\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2543165471.USD","symbol_name":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/major-asx-miner-reduces-aluminium-exposure","article_id":"2649643658","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"morningstar_stock","url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/major-asx-miner-reduces-aluminium-exposure","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649643658","pubTimestamp":1783267200,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"morningstar_stock","name":"Morning Star"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"South32 (ASX.S32) sold its bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets (except Mozal Aluminium) to Alcoa for up to USD 5.6 billion, including debt assumed and contingent consideration. Alcoa is entitled to ","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"morningstar.com.au","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU2543165471.USD":"E FUND (HK) GLOBAL QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","S32.AU":"SOUTH32 LTD","XME":"金属与采矿指数ETF-SPDR","AA":"美国铝业","BK4153":"铝","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK7507":"资源股"},"translate_title":"澳大利亚证券交易所主要矿商减少铝暴露","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AA":0.9,"XME":1.5,"S32.AU":0.61},"content_text":"South32 (ASX.S32) sold its bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets (except Mozal Aluminium) to Alcoa for up to USD 5.6 billion, including debt assumed and contingent consideration. Alcoa is entitled to the assets’ cash flow from April 1, 2026, with the deal set to close in the second half of fiscal 2027.Why it matters: We like the deal as it values these assets around 8% higher than our valuation. Shares are up 7% since the announcement. As well as helping fund growth projects led by its Taylor development in Arizona, some of the proceeds are likely to be used to increase shareholder distributions.The deal means South32 will be focused on copper, zinc, silver, lead, and manganese. Mozal Aluminium, now on care and maintenance, is also likely to be sold. We previously assumed a 50% chance it would successfully agree to a new power deal and continue operating.It will also proceed with expanding production at its 45%-owned Sierra Gorda copper mine in Chile. We previously assumed a 50% chance this would occur and estimate the expansion will increase copper volumes by about 30% compared with fiscal 2026 volumes once built and fully ramped in fiscal 2031.The bottom line: We lift our fair value estimate for no-moat South32 by 5% to $4.10 per share, with shares trading close to our intrinsic assessment. The Alcoa deal and foreign currency movements since our last update drive the increase.Between the lines: While not required by ASX listing rules, shareholders will be asked to approve the deal via an ordinary resolution at its AGM in October 2026. As the aluminum business represented around 35% of our fair value estimate before the deal was announced, we think this is fair. If approved and it subsequently closes, as we think likely, the firm will receive USD 3.1 billion in cash plus USD 1 billion in Alcoa shares. Alcoa will also assume USD 750 million in net debt and lease liabilities. We estimate about USD 300 million in contingent consideration will also be received.South32’s fair value increased by 5%; Shares trade close to our intrinsic assessmentSouth32 is a diversified midtier global mining company spun out from BHP in 2015. It has commodity diversification, and its operations are generally in the bottom half of their industry cost curves. However, they generally lack a maintainable competitive advantage given relatively high capital intensity, a lack of barriers to entry, and in some cases, relatively short reserve life.South32’s alumina operations are in Australia and Brazil. It also has aluminum operations in Brazil, South Africa, and Mozambique, though its Mozambique operations were placed on care and maintenance in March 2026 due to elevated power costs. Aluminum smelting and alumina refining assets are generally in the bottom half of their respective industry operating cost curves. It has agreed to sell its bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets except those in Mozambique to Alcoa, likely effective in the second half of fiscal 2027.The highest-quality operation is Australian manganese, located in the lowest quartile of the industry cost curve, and which has historically generated strong returns. We expect strong returns to continue, but we do not consider it a moaty asset given its reserve life is less than 10 years.The purchase of the Hermosa project with the acquisition of Arizona Mining in 2018 brings the low-cost Taylor zinc/lead/silver asset. High grades support cash costs in the lowest quartile of the zinc cost curve once developed, while resource life is long, sufficient for about 30 years of production. South32 also entered the copper business in 2022 via the purchase of a 45% stake in the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile. While Sierra Gorda is located in the second quartile of the copper cost curve, it was an expensive purchase.A number of South32’s operations are in higher-sovereign-risk locales, including Hillside aluminium in South Africa, Mozal in Mozambique, Alumar in Brazil, and South Africa Manganese.Bulls saySouth32 is a beneficiary of continued global population growth, urbanization, and increased demand for commodities from industrialization.South32’s cash flow base is diversified, and diversification brings some resilience to cash flows. Development of the Hermosa Taylor deposit likely skews earnings toward a low-cost, relatively high-quality zinc mine.The company has assets with cost bases generally in the lowest half of their respective industry cost curves, with a reasonable portfolio of expandable operations.Bears sayThe desire to diversify earnings into base metals and the need to eventually replace depletion presents a longer-term risk for missteps, with a major acquisition the key risk to the balance sheet.South32’s assets are generally second tier and it has higher leverage to commodity prices than its lower-cost competitors.Sovereign risk is above average for South32 compared with peers, with significant earnings from developing world locales.Subscribe to get Morningstar insights in your inbox","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}