The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1018 GMT - Palm oil rose in Asian trading. Prices are expected to remain relatively steady this week as concerns over lower oil prices are offset by Indonesia rolling out its B50 biodiesel mandate that requires a 50% palm oil-diesel blend, Nomura analysts write in a note. Nomura expects CPO prices to average around 4,500 ringgit a ton, but prices could decline to 4,400 ringgit a ton if exports weaken. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for September delivery rose 70 ringgit to 4,550 ringgit a ton. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0918 GMT - China's industrial artificial-intelligence developers will benefit from first-mover advantage in the sector, HSBC analysts write in a note. HSBC sees fast adoption of AI in industrial automation, given decent value add and quality data available, they write. The development of large AI models could eventually translate into demand for more robots that improve work efficiencies in areas like assembly and anomaly detection, they say. AI should also accelerate dexterous-hand training, benefiting supplier Shenzhen Zhaowei Machinery, they add. HSBC initiates coverage on Zhaowei's Hong Kong-listed shares at buy with a target price of 105 Hong Kong dollars. It has a hold rating on its A shares and trims its target price to 90 yuan from 114 yuan. Zhaowei's H shares closed at HK$56.85 while its A shares closed at 95.38 yuan. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0903 GMT - France's TotalEnergies' 2026 earnings per share could be hit by lower oil prices, Baader Helvea's Frederic Lorec writes. The brokerage lowers this year's Brent crude forecast to $87 a barrel from a prior $95 a barrel forecast. This brings its EPS forecast down to $12.4 from $13.7 previously. Shares rise 0.3% to 67.16 euros.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0808 GMT - European natural-gas prices fall in early trading, with the benchmark Dutch TTF contract down 1.3% to 44.73 euros a megawatt-hour, but remain up more than 5% on the week. "The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the risk of outright supply loss, but LNG shipping flows are recovering much more slowly than crude oil, leaving effective export capacity constrained well into 3Q," ANZ analysts say. At the same time, a strengthening El Niño is emerging as a major demand risk, with hotter weather and weaker hydroelectric generation expected to lift LNG consumption across Asia just as Gulf supply remains restricted. "The collision of delayed LNG trade normalization and stronger Asian demand is likely to intensify competition, leaving Europe vulnerable to lower storage levels and keeping global gas markets structurally tight," the analysts say.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0736 GMT - Gold futures rise after posting their first weekly gain since May, as weaker U.S. jobs data and lower oil prices reduced expectations of interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The sharp drop in crude prices--driven by the recovery of flows through the Strait of Hormuz and OPEC+'s decision to hike output--eased concerns over inflationary pressures and strengthened the case for lower interest rates, providing a tailwind for non-yielding assets. Still, "short-dated U.S. bond yields still signal the risk of a rate hike later this year," analysts at Saxo Bank say. "A further easing in those expectations is needed to support bullion, which for now continues to consolidate." In early trading, New York gold futures rise 1% to $4,166 a troy ounce. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0729 GMT - Oil prices fall on OPEC+'s decision to hike production and the continued recovery in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In early European trading, Brent crude is down 0.4% to $71.84 a barrel, while WTI futures edge 0.3% lower to $68.48 a barrel. "Brent and Dubai crude time spreads remained in contango, reflecting ample near-term supply, and Gulf producers are expected to lower official selling prices further to maintain competitiveness," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. Contango occurs when near-term futures prices are lower than longer-dated contract prices. Saudi Arabia's exports have surged close to prewar levels, while the United Arab Emirates is also restoring flows at a rapid pace, contributing to a looser physical market, according to analysts. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0719GMT - Chips could become the main driver of inflation, taking over from energy, according to HSBC economists. With oil prices falling quickly, input cost pressures from energy prices have likely already peaked, they say in a note. However, companies in Taiwan and South Korea have raised semiconductor selling prices to protect margins amid strong tech demand, showing significant pricing power. As a result, semiconductor export prices in U.S. dollars increased 18% and 37% for Taiwan and South Korea, respectively, in May, according to HSBC calculations. "This supports national income in both economies, but it also means they are exporting inflation to the rest of the world, with spot semiconductor prices still rising," the economists say. "Chip inflation could easily take over from energy as the next global inflation impulse." (sherry.qin@wsj.com)

0650 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields edge lower, tracking their U.S. Treasury peers. "There is relatively little in the way of new impulses for the eurozone this week," Metzler analysts say in a note. German factory orders this morning, industrial production on Tuesday and foreign trade data Thursday, as well as eurozone producer prices and retail sales "should provide valuable insight regarding expected GDP growth for the second quarter," they say. While the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile and short-term supply is difficult to predict, structural oil supply appears set to rise further in the future, they say after OPEC+ decided to increase production. The 10-year German Bund yield falls 0.8 basis points to 2.923%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0649 GMT - A pullback in oil prices should be positive for corporate credit, according to Jefferies's Mohit Kumar. Credit spreads are too tight but outright yields are still attractive, the global economist writes in a note. "We remain positive on credit on a total yield basis," he says. More broadly, Jefferies remains positive on risky assets. "No need for central banks to hike rates (our view), positive seasonality in July, not so crowded positions and ample cash in the system should all favor risky assets over the coming weeks," Kumar says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0631 GMT - The 'prices paid' component of the U.S. ISM services will get particular attention and could eventually support the short-end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, Metzler's Uwe Hohmann and Yannik Mosbach say in a note. This component is expected to remain at an elevated level, albeit lower than in the previous month, the analysts say ahead of the release for June. "Should there be a downside surprise here--as was the case with the manufacturing sector--it would further fuel recent doubts regarding Fed rate hikes and provide support for the short end of the Treasury curve," they say. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0606 GMT - The downward correction in European Central Bank interest-rate expectations seems to be running out of steam for now, Commerzbank's Rainer Guntermann says in a note. Official guidance for July is ambiguous, while the ECB is not taking a further rate hike off the table, the rates strategist says. For front-end eurozone bond yields to move lower, a larger drop in oil prices seems needed, he says. Money markets currently price in 17 basis points of ECB rate hike for September and 25 basis points by year-end, according to LSEG data. "More color is in store in the coming days with a long list of ECB speakers and the minutes from the June meeting," Guntermann says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0557 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields fall in Asian trade following last Thursday's weaker-than-expected employment data that led the markets to scale back their expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes. Brent oil trades marginally lower, just below $72 per barrel, after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies decided to increase oil output again as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield declines 0.4 basis points to 4.126%, while the 10-year yield falls 0.6 basis points to 4.472%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 06, 2026 06:18 ET (10:18 GMT)

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