The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0851 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, extend an earlier rise, climbing to their highest level since June 10 after U.S. President Trump says that the ceasefire deal with Iran is over. The announcement pushes Brent crude price up further, raising inflation risk and the possibility of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months. Ten-year gilt yields climb 11 basis points to a high of 4.945%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0837 GMT - The dollar turns higher after President Trump said the U.S. and Iran ceasefire is over after the two sides exchanged renewed military strikes. Speaking at the Nato summit in Ankara, Trump said "as far as I'm concerned, it's over" and that Iran was led by "sick people." His comments came after the U.S. struck sites along Iran's coast and blocked its ability to sell oil legally on Tuesday in response to Tehran's recent attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz. Iran responded with counterattacks. The dollar benefits from safe-haven flows and higher oil prices due to America's position as a net oil exporter. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 101.169. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0828 GMT - Thailand's inflation has liked moved past its peak after prices eased in June, says Sok Yin Yong, Asia fixed income research analyst at Julius Baer, in a note. Headline inflation cooled last month, mainly due to lower energy prices. Core inflation picked up in June, reflecting underlying price pressures in prepared food, medical and personal care as well as cost pass-through from businesses to consumers. However, inflation could still accelerate in 3Q from higher vegetable, fuel, prepared food and transport prices. El Nino-related impact on agriculture output could also drive up inflation.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0827 GMT - The yen's traditional link with real U.S.-Japan interest-rate differentials has weakened since autumn 2025, with the currency continuing to depreciate despite narrowing rate gaps, says Daiwa Institute of Research economist Keiji Kanda. Analysts point to concerns over fiscal deterioration under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's administration as a key factor driving yen-selling pressure. Kanda says the Bank of Japan's rate increases have offered limited support for the currency because the policy rate remains below neutral levels. "The yen is unlikely to shift into a sustained strengthening trend anytime soon, even as the BOJ continues raising rates," he adds. The dollar was last trading at 162.21 yen. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0819 GMT - Thailand's inflation will likely remain above 2% in the months ahead and possibly throughout 2H, largely due to a low base, Commerzbank Research analysts say in a note. Headline inflation eased to 2.42% on year in June, compared with 2.79% in May. The momentum in energy prices also slowed last month and is expected to moderate further. That should help curb headline inflation from rising higher, the analysts say. Lower electricity tariffs and abundant meat supplies are also expected to help contain price pressures. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0818 GMT - Investors raise their expectations of the Bank of England increasing interest rates in the coming months given renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The fresh conflict has led oil prices to rise and revived inflation concerns, raising the possibility of the BOE increasing interest rates in 2026. Investors price in a 96% chance of a BOE rate hike in December following the new tensions, up from an 80% chance priced in last week, LSEG data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0815 GMT - The dollar could remain sensitive to any weak U.S. economic data given uncertainties over the stance of new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. At the Fed's June meeting, Warsh said he was committed to price stability, although he has since said inflationary risks have eased. There is a growing risk that he'll want to resume cutting interest rates faster and more aggressively in the face of weak data and falling inflation, she says. The dollar will suffer more from weak data than positive data as there is hardly any room to price in more rate rises but there is scope for earlier rate cuts if data and Warsh convince other Fed officials, she says. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0812 GMT - The Polish central bank's policy decision later in the day is likely to reinforce the prospect of the Polish zloty underperforming the Czech koruna in coming months, Commerzbank's Tatha Ghose says. The central bank is expected to leave rates at 3.75% and could deliver data-dependent guidance on future moves, he says in a note. Recent lower inflation data have stripped away the chance of rate rises, he says. Given the drop in energy prices, rate cuts could return for discussion by the fourth quarter, he says. In contrast, the Czech National Bank raised rates in June. The zloty rises 0.2% to 5.6343 koruna, having reached a two-and-a-half year low of 5.6127 overnight, according to LSEG.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - A 10% yen depreciation against the dollar was a net drag of about 0.14 percentage point on Japan's real GDP growth over the past year, according to Daiwa Institute of Research. While a weaker yen typically boosts growth via inbound spending and stock wealth effects, those benefits were concentrated among tourism businesses and high-asset elderly households, says Daiwa economist Keiji Kanda. Instead, higher import costs weighed heavily on most firms and households, while factors such as price pass-through, Middle East tensions, Trump tariffs and a decline in the number of Chinese tourists suppressed a weak yen's typical positive effects, he says. The yen remains near historic lows against the dollar, hovering around 162.20.(megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0752 GMT - Global investors resume pricing in the possibility of high inflation as the U.S. and Iran resume attacks. "Markets do not need a full regional war to reprice risk; they only need enough uncertainty around energy flows to lift crude, and steepen inflation expectations," Tickmill Group's Patrick Munnelly says in a note. Brent crude price rises 2.3% to last trade at $75.9. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasurys, German Bunds and U.K. gilts rise to 4-week highs, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0751 GMT - The Bank of Thailand weighed the risks of maintaining low interest rates last month, according to minutes of the rate-setting meeting, where committee members voted unanimously to maintain the policy rate at 1.00%. Some committee members pointed to "the impact on the country's credit rating, diminished policy headroom and the accumulation of financial system vulnerabilities driven by extended periods of low interest rates." The central bank expects inflation to accelerate, reiterating its forecast of 2.8% for 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. The BOT noted "that cost pass-through by businesses and medium-term inflation expectations should be closely monitored in an environment where prices and costs remained elevated." (jihye.lee@wsj.com)

0747 GMT - Gold prices edge lower but have so far found support above $4,100 a troy ounce as investors await the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes for more cues on the monetary policy outlook. "The metal continues to trade largely in line with shifting U.S. rate expectations," ING analysts say. "Last week's weaker-than-expected jobs data reduced expectations of additional tightening and helped gold stabilize back above the $4,000-an-ounce level." Meanwhile, continued gold purchases by China's central bank, alongside reserve diversification by central banks globally, also provided underlying support for bullion. In early trading, New York futures fall 0.5% to $4,135.50 an ounce but are up more than 2% on the week. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 08, 2026 04:51 ET (08:51 GMT)

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