Are negative AI narratives holding this ASX share back?

Morning Star AU

Jun 30

SiteMinder (ASX: SDR) shares have sold off around 50% since their peak in 2025 on fears of artificial intelligence disruption. We have analyzed the AI threat and revisited our thesis about SiteMinder’...

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We have analyzed the AI threat and revisited our thesis about SiteMinder’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/are-negative-ai-narratives-holding-this-asx-share-back\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"morningstar_stock","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are negative AI narratives holding this ASX share back?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre negative AI narratives holding this ASX share back?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-30 00:00 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/are-negative-ai-narratives-holding-this-asx-share-back><strong>Morning Star AU</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SiteMinder (ASX: SDR) shares have sold off around 50% since their peak in 2025 on fears of artificial intelligence disruption. We have analyzed the AI threat and revisited our thesis about SiteMinder’...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/are-negative-ai-narratives-holding-this-asx-share-back\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"AIPO","symbol_name":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/are-negative-ai-narratives-holding-this-asx-share-back","article_id":"2647582025","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"morningstar_stock","url":"https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/are-negative-ai-narratives-holding-this-asx-share-back","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2647582025","pubTimestamp":1782748800,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"morningstar_stock","name":"Morning Star"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"SiteMinder (ASX: SDR) shares have sold off around 50% since their peak in 2025 on fears of artificial intelligence disruption. We have analyzed the AI threat and revisited our thesis about SiteMinder’","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"morningstar.com.au","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","BK7016":"应用软件","BK4588":"碎股","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","SDR.AU":"SiteMinder Ltd","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","VGT":"信息技术ETF-Vanguard"},"translate_title":"负面的人工智能叙事是否阻碍了澳大利亚证券交易所的股价？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"SDR.AU":1,"VGT":0.65,"AIPO":1.5,"AGIX":1.5,"CHAT":1.5,"ARTY":1.5},"content_text":"SiteMinder (ASX: SDR) shares have sold off around 50% since their peak in 2025 on fears of artificial intelligence disruption. We have analyzed the AI threat and revisited our thesis about SiteMinder’s competitive landscape and its broader operating environment.Why it matters: Markets have become enamored with the promise of AI, which has depressed sentiment in many other sectors, especially software as a service, or SaaS. But the pessimism for SaaS seems excessive, in our view.Moreover, SiteMinder’s shares have been hit with two structural negative narratives from AI—commodification of software as well as disintermediation of the online travel agencies, or OTAs, that SiteMinder connects to—which we think has amplified the negative sentiment from each.Additionally, the Iran war and the ensuing oil price shock have dampened near-term travel demand, leading to near-term pressure for transaction revenue for SiteMinder.The bottom line: We maintain our fair value estimate for narrow-moat SiteMinder of AUD 11. We have adjusted near-term revenue forecasts reflecting the impact of the Iran war, but we keep our long-term thesis. Shares screen as materially undervalued as multiple narratives weigh on the stock. Although we think there will be some channel shift toward AI, we don’t expect large-scale disintermediation of OTAs from AI. Moreover, such channel shift is likely to be positive for SiteMinder, given that it generates more money from direct bookings than through OTAs.We also don’t think channel manager software, like SiteMinder develops, will be commoditized. We think SiteMinder, as the largest hotel software in the world by a factor of two, as measured by the number of hotels, is more likely to be a consolidator than a subject of disruption.SiteMinder unlikely to be disrupted by AIWe expect SiteMinder’s strategy to be wide-ranging, including a focus on attracting new customers, increasing penetration of its current product suite, and developing and launching new products. We view SiteMinder’s strategy as appropriate, despite its wide-ranging nature, as all three focus areas provide large and highly winnable opportunities.We expect SiteMinder to take significant market share within the hotel industry. SiteMinder’s market share among hotels currently sits in the midsingle digits, yet SiteMinder is the leader in its space, and has twice the market share of its closest competitor. We expect scale-based cost advantages to drive consolidation in the channel manager industry, as subscale players are pushed out of the market and scaled providers, like SiteMinder, take share. Specifically, we expect SiteMinder to take dominant market share in larger single-location hotels and in hotel chains outside of the largest chains.We also expect SiteMinder to increase its take rate through increased penetration of its existing product suite, especially through adoption of its transaction-based products. We estimate that transaction-based revenue currently makes up around 10 basis points of the gross booking value, or GBV, of SiteMinder’s customers. For comparison, SiteMinder Pay has a take rate of around 2%-3% of payments that are processed through a hotel’s website or, from fiscal 2025, also on payments processed at a hotel’s premises. Similarly, SiteMinder Demand Plus has a take rate of 15% on incremental demand generated through search engine optimization.Finally, we expect SiteMinder’s new products to be significant growth drivers, especially Channels Plus. We expect Channels Plus, which aggregates several smaller channels into a single channel, will see rapid adoption among SiteMinder’s existing customers and help attract new customers. Although the take rate of this product is like that of payments, we expect its uptake to be much higher, due to its more differentiated nature, as well as the clear value it provides.Bulls saySiteMinder is the world’s largest e-commerce software provider for the global hotel industry, at twice the size of its nearest competitor.SiteMinder has a large and highly winnable market opportunity, consisting of increased market penetration, product penetration, and increased digitization of the hotel industry through new products.SiteMinder’s Channels Plus product is a unique and highly valuable product that will accelerate customer acquisition and take-rate expansion.Bears saySiteMinder’s end markets are highly cyclical.SiteMinder’s market share currently sits in the midsingle digits, which leaves significant room for new competitors to come in.SiteMinder has a history of losses and may struggle to achieve profitability.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}