Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) Shares After Strong Yearly Gains Is There Still Upside Potential

Simply Wall St.

Jun 13

If you are wondering whether Lynas Rare Earths at around A$17.77 still offers value, the key is to understand what the current share price actually builds in. The stock has pulled back recently, with ...

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The stock has pulled back recently, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-lyc/lynas-rare-earths-shares/news/lynas-rare-earths-asxlyc-shares-after-strong-yearly-gains-is\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) Shares After Strong Yearly Gains Is There Still Upside Potential</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLynas Rare Earths (ASX:LYC) Shares After Strong Yearly Gains Is There Still Upside Potential\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-13 11:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-lyc/lynas-rare-earths-shares/news/lynas-rare-earths-asxlyc-shares-after-strong-yearly-gains-is><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether Lynas Rare Earths at around A$17.77 still offers value, the key is to understand what the current share price actually builds in. The stock has pulled back recently, with ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-lyc/lynas-rare-earths-shares/news/lynas-rare-earths-asxlyc-shares-after-strong-yearly-gains-is\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK7095","symbol_name":"多种金属与采矿","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-lyc/lynas-rare-earths-shares/news/lynas-rare-earths-asxlyc-shares-after-strong-yearly-gains-is","article_id":"2643219497","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/2052000-choice2-main-header/1585186553865"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-lyc/lynas-rare-earths-shares/news/lynas-rare-earths-asxlyc-shares-after-strong-yearly-gains-is","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2643219497","pubTimestamp":1781321159,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Lynas Rare Earths at around A$17.77 still offers value, the key is to understand what the current share price actually builds in.\nThe stock has pulled back recently, with the price declining 2.1% over the past week and 10.7% over the past month, although it is still up 45.4% year to date and 97.4% over the last year.\nThose moves have kept Lynas Rare Earths firmly on investor watchlists as one of the more closely followed rare earth producers, particularly given...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BK7507":"资源股","SETM":"Sprott Critical Materials ETF","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","LYC.AU":"LYNAS RARE EARTHS LTD"},"translate_title":"莱纳斯稀土(ASX：LYC)股价在年度强劲上涨后仍有上涨潜力","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"LYC.AU":1.5,"SETM":1.5},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Lynas Rare Earths at around A$17.77 still offers value, the key is to understand what the current share price actually builds in. The stock has pulled back recently, with the price declining 2.1% over the past week and 10.7% over the past month, although it is still up 45.4% year to date and 97.4% over the last year. Those moves have kept Lynas Rare Earths firmly on investor watchlists as one of the more closely followed rare earth producers, particularly given ongoing interest in critical minerals and supply chains. This article is not tied to a specific headline; however, the broader focus on rare earth supply security and policy settings provides useful context for the recent volatility. Simply Wall St currently gives Lynas Rare Earths a valuation score of 2 out of 6. The sections that follow will compare different valuation methods to that score, and then finish with a broader way to think about valuation that goes beyond a single number.  Lynas Rare Earths scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Lynas Rare Earths Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model looks at the cash Lynas Rare Earths could generate in the future and works out what that stream of cash flows is worth in A$ today after applying a discount rate. For Lynas Rare Earths, the latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of about A$457.5 million, so the DCF relies heavily on projected improvements. Analysts and model estimates point to free cash flow of A$191.6 million in 2026 and A$548.2 million in 2027, rising to A$1,078 million in 2030. Estimates beyond the first few years are extrapolated by Simply Wall St to fill out a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model. When all those future cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of A$19.73 per share. Compared with the current share price of around A$17.77, this implies the stock is trading at about a 9.9% discount to the DCF estimate. This is close to fair value rather than a clear bargain. Result: ABOUT RIGHT Lynas Rare Earths is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act. LYC Discounted Cash Flow as at Jun 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Lynas Rare Earths. Approach 2: Lynas Rare Earths Price vs Sales For companies where earnings can be volatile or temporarily subdued, the P/S ratio is often a useful way to think about valuation because it focuses on revenue rather than profit, which can swing more from year to year. In general, investors tend to pay higher P/S multiples for companies where they expect stronger growth and are comfortable with the risks, and lower multiples where growth expectations are more muted or risks are higher. So what counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/S really depends on that balance of growth and risk. Lynas Rare Earths currently trades on a P/S of 25x. That compares with a Metals and Mining industry average P/S of about 81x and a peer group average of around 10x. Simply Wall St also calculates a “Fair Ratio” of 5.69x for Lynas Rare Earths. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of the P/S multiple that would be reasonable given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks. Because the Fair Ratio directly incorporates those company specific drivers, it is a more tailored benchmark than simple peer or industry comparisons. With the actual P/S of 25x sitting well above the Fair Ratio of 5.69x, the stock screens as expensive on this measure. Result: OVERVALUED ASX:LYC P/S Ratio as at Jun 2026 Wall Street's queuing for one rocket. While SpaceX counts down to its IPO, other companies tied to the new space race are already in orbit. → 20 Compelling Space Companies watchlist · Global Space Race Investing Ideas screener · Scan the sector by valuation on Rocket Lab's valuation page. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Lynas Rare Earths Narrative Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation. This is where Narratives come in, giving you a simple story-driven framework that connects your view of Lynas Rare Earths to a set of numbers and a fair value estimate. A Narrative on Simply Wall St is your own story about the company, backed by assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins. This means you are not just looking at ratios in isolation, but tying them to what you think the business can achieve. Each Narrative links three pieces together: the business story, a forward looking forecast, and a resulting fair value that you can then compare with today’s share price to decide whether Lynas Rare Earths looks cheap, pricey or about right for your goals. These Narratives sit inside the Simply Wall St Community page, are easy to set up or adopt, and are refreshed automatically when new information such as news or earnings is added. This helps your fair value stay aligned with the latest data. For Lynas Rare Earths, one Community Narrative currently anchors fair value around A$10.03 while another sits at A$33.35. This highlights how different investors can look at the same company and, based on different assumptions, reach very different conclusions about what they think it is worth. For Lynas Rare Earths however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Lynas Rare Earths Narratives: 🐂 Lynas Rare Earths Bull Case Fair value in this bullish Narrative: A$19.86 per share Current price compared with this fair value: trading at about a 10.5% discount to the narrative fair value Revenue growth assumption used in this Narrative: 48.6% a year  Analysts in this camp expect strong support from Western governments, with offtake agreements and pricing floors helping to underpin revenue and margins over time. The Narrative leans on the electrification trend, with rare earth demand for EVs and renewables supporting higher volumes and potential pricing power for Lynas Rare Earths. It also assumes effective execution on expansions in Australia and Malaysia plus downstream steps into metals and magnets. Together these factors support the view that the stock is roughly fairly valued around the consensus target.  🐻 Lynas Rare Earths Bear Case Fair value in this bearish Narrative: A$10.03 per share Current price compared with this fair value: trading at about a 77.3% premium to the narrative fair value Revenue growth assumption used in this Narrative: 43.4% a year  Bearish analysts here focus on the risk that recycling, alternative chemistries and more global supply could cap long term demand and pricing power for Lynas Rare Earths. They also highlight exposure to regulatory and environmental issues, and reliance on Mt Weld, which together could put pressure on costs, volumes and free cash flow. This view treats the stock as pricing in a lot of good news already, using a lower fair value that builds in execution risk on projects, offtake visibility and future contract terms.  These two Narratives sit at opposite ends of the current range, which is exactly why they are useful. If you want to see the full set of assumptions, charts and valuation logic behind them, you can step through the detailed community narratives for Lynas Rare Earths on Simply Wall St and decide which story, if either, lines up with your own expectations. To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Lynas Rare Earths on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves. Do you think there's more to the story for Lynas Rare Earths? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! ASX:LYC 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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