Assessing Origin Energy’s Valuation After Smart Metering Deal With Landis+Gyr

Simply Wall St.

Jun 04

AdvertisementSmart metering deal puts Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) operations in focus Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) has partnered with Landis+Gyr to digitise part of its Australian gas network, rolling out ...

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However, the 5 year total...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK7507":"资源股","ORG.AU":"ORIGIN ENERGY LTD","BK7006":"电力公用事业","BK7130":"综合性石油与天然气企业"},"translate_title":"评估Origin Energy与Landis+Gyr达成智能计量交易后的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"ORG.AU":1.5},"content_text":"AdvertisementSmart metering deal puts Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) operations in focus Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) has partnered with Landis+Gyr to digitise part of its Australian gas network, rolling out smart metering technology that allows remote readings and near real-time usage data across existing infrastructure. See our latest analysis for Origin Energy. At a share price of A$10.75, Origin’s short term performance has been soft, with the 30 day share price return down 9.21%. However, the 5 year total shareholder return of 184.24% presents a much stronger long term picture as investors weigh operational updates such as the smart metering rollout against broader expectations. If this kind of grid modernisation story interests you, it may be worth widening your search to other power and infrastructure themes using our screener for 33 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks With Origin shares down 9.21% over the past month, yet carrying a 30.22% implied intrinsic discount and trading 13.44% below one set of analyst targets, is this weakness a potential entry point or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 11.8% Undervalued At A$10.75, the most followed narrative on Origin Energy points to a fair value of A$12.19, using a 7.0% discount rate as its anchor.  The company's capital-intensive investments in renewables, storage, and international software platforms (Kraken/Octopus) are being valued as sources of near-term EBITDA growth, yet these ventures may face execution risks and cost overruns, which could compress return on capital and drag on future earnings.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how a flat revenue outlook can still justify a higher fair value per share? The narrative leans heavily on margin uplift and a richer future earnings multiple. Want to see which specific profit assumptions and valuation multiple have to hold up to support that A$12.19 figure? Result: Fair Value of A$12.19 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on Kraken and Octopus scaling as expected and on LNG remaining a reliable cash generator, outcomes that could shift sentiment quickly. Wall Street's queuing for one rocket. While SpaceX counts down to its IPO, other companies tied to the new space race are already in orbit. → 20 Compelling Space Companies watchlist · Global Space Race Investing Ideas screener · Scan the sector by valuation on Rocket Lab's valuation page. Next Steps After all this, does Origin look like an opportunity or a risk to you? Move quickly, review both sides of the story and weigh up the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign. Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop with just one stock, you could miss opportunities that better fit your goals, so put a few more options on your radar today using focused screeners.  Zero in on potential value by reviewing companies highlighted in the 8 high quality undervalued stocks that align with your preferred quality and pricing filters. Strengthen your watchlist with businesses screened through the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (19 results) that emphasise balance sheet resilience and fundamental stability. Get ahead of the crowd by scanning the screener containing 12 high quality undiscovered gems that surfaces financially solid stocks investors might be overlooking.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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