Telstra Group's (ASX:TLS) fiscal year 2027 National Broadband Network (NBN) price rises will broadly offset its broadband cost of goods sold (COGS) inflation and set a price ceiling that is estimated to pinch Aussie Broadband's (ASX:ABB) and Superloop's (ASX:SLC) margin into the next fiscal year, Jarden said in a note on Friday.

NBN wholesale prices will rise 3% to 5% across the five core retail tiers from July 1. It is estimated that Telstra's NBN reseller gross profit will be broadly flat into fiscal year 2027 at the headline level.

On Aussie Broadband, the analysts consider price increases across the entirety of their base as unlikely, leading into fiscal 2027. For Superloop, its relative discount at higher speeds provides sufficient headroom to push COGS increases fully through its retail book, though it views headline price increases on the 500 megabits-per-second plan as unlikely.

Jarden assigned Aussie Broadband a rating of neutral with a price target of AU$5.50 per share, Superloop a buy rating and a price target of AU$3.40 per share, and Telstra a neutral rating with a price target of AU$5.05 per share.