By Teresa Rivas and Mackenzie Tatananni
Investors brushed aside a conservative fiscal-year forecast from TJX Cos. on Wednesday, focusing instead on the retailer's stronger-than-expected quarterly profit and sales.
The parent company of Marshalls and TJ Maxx posted first-quarter earnings of $1.19 a share, beating the $1.02 a share analysts had anticipated.
Sales rose 9% to $14.3 billion, ahead of Wall Street's calls for $14 billion. Consolidated comparable sales increased 6%, "well above the company's plan," TJX said.
Shares advanced 5% in morning trading, putting them on pace for their largest increase since August 2024.
For the current second quarter, TJX sees earnings of $1.15 to $1.17 a share, below the $1.19 consensus among analysts polled by FactSet. The company also guided for fiscal-year earnings in the range of $5.08 to $5.15 a share, missing analysts' calls for $5.13 at the midpoint.
"TJX knocked it out of the park this morning, proving yet again that the off-price retail model is incredibly resilient in today's choppy consumer landscape," says David Wagner, Head of Equity and Portfolio Manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. "What's most impressive is that this wasn't just a win driven by aggressive cost-cutting; consolidated comparable store sales jumped a robust 6% across the board, with all divisions gaining ground."
Off-price retailers have been some of the fastest growers in the industry, and investors were eagerly waiting to see if TJX, the biggest player, saw consumers coming back for more despite inflation's pinch.
The company, as the largest in the industry, also has enviable relationships with suppliers that keep it top-tier merchandise.
"We continue to see TJX as a long term share compounder, as the company has become increasingly important to its vendors, representing a crucial element within the retail ecosystem," writes Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel.
As with other retailers, TJX's quarter doesn't fully reflect the higher gas prices that have investors worried about the health of the consumer, making management's commentary all the more crucial.
"Fuel prices can cause pressure all around the board," Chief Executive Officer Ernie Hermann said during the company's conference call. "We try not to get too theoretical about what the impact is going to be, other than we know the better value we offer and the more exciting we make the treasure hunt shopping experience for our customers, the more market share we will gain...And remember, when you have a situation like this where there's uneasiness out there...more consumers looking for value is an opportunity for us."
According to data from Placer.ai, same-store visits at both TJ Maxx and Marshalls, another TJX brand, were up in February, "but significantly lower in March and April, perhaps due to broader consumer caution."
Some of the foot traffic may have switched to e-commerce, but that's historically been a smaller part of the off-price retailers' business.
TJX Cos., like other retailers, has struggled to convince investors that shoppers will keep returning despite pressure on their budgets, putting its shares down slightly this year.
Target's latest quarterly earnings could be a start. The retail giant posted a 5.6% surge in comparable sales, which combine bricks-and-mortar and digital channels open for at least a year, marking the retailer's strongest same-store sales growth since early 2022. However Wall Street wasn't impressed, and Target shares tumbled on Wednesday.
Still, investors appear more comfortable with TJX's long track record, which has helped it more than double since Barron's recommended it in April 2023.
Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com and Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
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May 21, 2026 11:47 ET (15:47 GMT)
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