Is It Time To Revisit Churchill Downs (CHDN) After Recent Share Price Weakness

Simply Wall St.

Apr 23

Wondering whether Churchill Downs at around US$90.84 is a bargain or a value trap? This article breaks down what the current share price might be implying about the stock. The stock has been mixed ...

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This article breaks down what the current share price might be implying about the stock. The stock has been mixed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nasdaq-chdn/churchill-downs/news/is-it-time-to-revisit-churchill-downs-chdn-after-recent-shar\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Time To Revisit Churchill Downs (CHDN) After Recent Share Price Weakness</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Time To Revisit Churchill Downs (CHDN) After Recent Share Price Weakness\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-23 02:14 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nasdaq-chdn/churchill-downs/news/is-it-time-to-revisit-churchill-downs-chdn-after-recent-shar><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wondering whether Churchill Downs at around US$90.84 is a bargain or a value trap? This article breaks down what the current share price might be implying about the stock. The stock has been mixed ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nasdaq-chdn/churchill-downs/news/is-it-time-to-revisit-churchill-downs-chdn-after-recent-shar\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"CHDN","symbol_name":"Churchill Downs","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nasdaq-chdn/churchill-downs/news/is-it-time-to-revisit-churchill-downs-chdn-after-recent-shar","article_id":"2629163024","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/4211000-choice1-main-header/1585186648041"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/consumer-services/nasdaq-chdn/churchill-downs/news/is-it-time-to-revisit-churchill-downs-chdn-after-recent-shar","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629163024","pubTimestamp":1776881658,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Wondering whether Churchill Downs at around US$90.84 is a bargain or a value trap? This article breaks down what the current share price might be implying about the stock.\nThe stock has been mixed recently, with a 1.2% decline over the last week, an 8.5% gain over the last month, and returns of an 18.9% decline year to date and an 11.5% decline over the last year.\nThose returns sit against a longer backdrop where the share price shows a 27.7% decline over three years and a 15.7% decline over...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"CHDN":"Churchill Downs","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK4150":"赌场与赌博"},"translate_title":"近期股价疲软后，是时候重新审视丘吉尔唐斯(CHDN)了吗","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CHDN":1.5,"DCF":1},"content_text":"Wondering whether Churchill Downs at around US$90.84 is a bargain or a value trap? This article breaks down what the current share price might be implying about the stock. The stock has been mixed recently, with a 1.2% decline over the last week, an 8.5% gain over the last month, and returns of an 18.9% decline year to date and an 11.5% decline over the last year. Those returns sit against a longer backdrop where the share price shows a 27.7% decline over three years and a 15.7% decline over five years. For anyone tracking Churchill Downs, this kind of performance context matters when thinking about what is already priced in. Despite that, Churchill Downs currently records a valuation score of 6 out of 6. The next step is to look at how different valuation methods arrive at that outcome and what an even more complete view of value might look like by the end of the article.  Find out why Churchill Downs's -11.5% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: Churchill Downs Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business could be worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today using a required rate of return. It is essentially asking what all those future dollars are worth in current terms. For Churchill Downs, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $113.0 million. Analyst estimates and extrapolations point to Free Cash Flow of $620.3 million in 2026 and $676.0 million in 2028, with ten year projections running through to 2035. Simply Wall St extends estimates beyond the analyst horizon to build a fuller cash flow path. Discounting those future cash flows results in an estimated intrinsic value of about $125.62 per share. Compared with a current share price of around $90.84, the DCF output implies roughly a 27.7% discount. This indicates that Churchill Downs is trading below this DCF-based estimate of fair value. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Churchill Downs is undervalued by 27.7%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 58 more high quality undervalued stocks. CHDN Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Churchill Downs. Approach 2: Churchill Downs Price vs Earnings For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It helps you compare how the market values different businesses on the same earnings based yardstick. What counts as a \"fair\" P/E usually reflects how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher growth and lower perceived risk often justify a higher multiple, while lower growth or higher uncertainty tend to point to a lower one. Churchill Downs currently trades on a P/E of 16.53x. That compares with an average of 22.25x for the wider Hospitality industry and a peer group average of 23.64x. Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio of 22.08x. This is a proprietary estimate of the P/E that might be reasonable given the company’s earnings growth profile, profit margins, risk factors, industry and market cap. The Fair Ratio can be more useful than simple industry or peer comparisons because it adjusts for company specific traits instead of assuming all firms deserve the same multiple. Since 16.53x sits below the 22.08x Fair Ratio by more than a small margin, the shares screen as undervalued on this metric. Result: UNDERVALUED NasdaqGS:CHDN P/E Ratio as at Apr 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 19 top founder-led companies. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Churchill Downs Narrative Earlier the article mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives are introduced as a simple way for you to connect your view of Churchill Downs' story to a set of forecasts and a fair value, then compare that fair value to the current price. On Simply Wall St's Community page, Narratives let you spell out your assumptions about future revenue, earnings and margins. The platform then turns these into a structured forecast and a fair value estimate that updates automatically as new news or earnings arrive. For Churchill Downs, one investor might build a Narrative that focuses on premium Derby offerings, HRM expansion and digital wagering, and conclude a fair value closer to the most optimistic analyst target of US$152.0. Another might focus more on regulatory and concentration risks and land near the most cautious target of US$110.0. By setting up both Narratives side by side, you can see how different stories, numbers and fair values line up against the current share price and consider what that might mean for your own buy, hold or sell timing. Do you think there's more to the story for Churchill Downs? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqGS:CHDN 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}