By Reshma Kapadia

American leaders pointed to peace talks and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, and the U.S. stock markets jumped, moving on from the Iran war.

Across the world, policymakers living the real-world impact of a war on their doorsteps took a much more sober view of developments. Among other things, they worry about the pace of a postconflict recovery and the scars it will leave behind on the global economy.

Mohammed Al-Jadaan, Saudi Arabia's minister of finance, said Thursday -- before the news about Hormuz -- that even if the war ended the next day, it could take until June before energy and commodity flows normalize because production needs to be restarted.

"Markets, insurers, tanker owners will take time to assess if there is a proper central command in place, so they won't get hit by a drone attack and then still there are the logistics of scheduling tankers and returning from the recent chaos," Al-Jadaan said on a panel at the International Monetary Fund. "Anyone counting on a quick recovery, even if there is a total end of hostilities, will need to recalculate that."

On Friday, Al-Jadaan welcomed reports of the reopening of peace talks but stressed the fragility of the situation. To gain confidence in a positive economic outlook scenario, he is looking for tangible signs such as insurance rates falling to more reasonable rates and tanker owners allowing their ships to go through the region.

Gan Kim Yong, minister of trade for Singapore, home to the biggest container port in the world, on Thursday warned that the world's supply chains have been disrupted. And the impact extends beyond shortages of energy, refined products and fertilizer.

"Price increases in transport costs will hurt everyone. There are no winners," he said at the Semafor World Economy conference. "The rest of the world will see a continued drag on the economy because of continued uncertainty."

That uncertainty stems from Iran's push to collect tolls on the Strait of Hormuz and what the U.S. Naval blockade means for other critical international waterways, like the Strait of Malacca in Asia, Gan said. He has opposed the moves by Iran and the U.S., citing United Nations laws governing international waters.

Isabelle Mateos y Lago, chief economist at BNP, told Barron's on Wednesday the conflict could serve as another wake-up call for world leaders.

"Since World War II everyone was relying on the U.S. Navy to protect the freedom of the seas. It was taken for granted. The entirety of global trade by ship relies on this," she said. "It will increase costs and increase the burden on others to organize their selves and accelerate the tendency toward regional supply chains."

Policymakers this week cited the impact of rising oil costs because of the Iran war, as countries have had to shorten workweeks, ration cooking fuel and find ways to subsidize the costs for their consumers. It has indeed been a wake-up call.

"We underestimate the basics. Just being safe is a significant value. Invest in the safety and security. Your ability to de-escalate in your region and beyond is very critical," said Al-Jadaan.

In fact, countries' efforts to bolster their self-reliance and diversify have paid off during this war. For decades, the Saudis took criticism for an east-west pipeline they built, which operated at just 20% of capacity. But that pipeline has been a lifeline, allowing Saudi to move 5 million barrels of oil and cushion the impact on energy markets

Similarly, China's self-reliance push amid its escalating rivalry with the U.S. -- which included building up a large strategic petroleum reserve -- helped the energy importer mitigate losing access to Iranian oil, which amounted to about 8% of its supply.

Some policymakers are looking to China's playbook. Ekniti Nitithanprapas, finance minister of net-energy importer Thailand, said at an IMF panel that the conflict will change the way companies do business.

"As economists, we put macro stability at the foundation but it's not sufficient anymore," he said.

Economic security will be more important, Nitithanprapas said, adding that countries will have to make themselves more secure to attract foreign direct investment. For Thailand, that means a push to increase renewables and incentivize solar to diversify its energy sources.

Strategists expect this focus on resiliency to spur a restocking, not just in energy but also critical commodities.

For investors, that could mean the selloff in energy and commodity-related stocks on the back of hopes the war could be a buying opportunity. It also means that inflation concerns could linger for longer.

Write to Reshma Kapadia at reshma.kapadia@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 17, 2026 14:57 ET (18:57 GMT)

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