By Kim Mackrael

The International Monetary Fund lowered its growth expectations for this year as it warned that the outbreak of war in the Middle East risks throwing the global economy off course.

The world's economy is expected to grow 3.1% this year and 3.2% next year, the IMF said in its latest report. That is slower than the recent pace of global growth, the organization said, adding that this year's outlook was revised down by 0.2 percentage points compared with an earlier, prewar projection. Global headline inflation, meanwhile, is expected to increase to 4.4% this year because of higher energy and food prices.

The IMF said those figures are based on an assumption that the war's duration, intensity and scope will be limited, with disruptions fading by mid-2026. An adverse scenario would further slow growth to 2.5% this year and push inflation to 5.4%, the IMF said, while a severe scenario could dent growth to about 2%.

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April 14, 2026 09:00 ET (13:00 GMT)

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