GQG Partners (ASX:GQG) Valuation Check After Trimming ITC Hotels Stake

Simply Wall St.

Apr 12

GQG Partners (ASX:GQG) has drawn attention after its Emerging Markets Equity Fund sold nearly 1.29 crore shares of ITC Hotels, trimming its stake from 1.97% to 1.35% through an open market transaction...

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See our latest analysis for GQG Partners. At a latest share price of A$1.78, GQG Partners has delivered a 3 year total shareholder return of 65.61%, even as its year to date share price return of 1.14% suggests momentum has cooled in the short term. If GQG’s portfolio moves have you thinking about where else capital is flowing, it could be a good moment to scan for other ideas using the 4 top founder-led companies With revenue of A$808.3 million, net income of A$457.0 million and a value score of 5, GQG screens as a potentially inexpensive asset manager. However, this raises the question of whether that indicates a buying opportunity or if the market is already pricing in future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 48.3% Overvalued Using A$1.20 as the fair value anchor from the most followed narrative, GQG Partners at A$1.78 sits well above that mark, which is exactly what has focused attention on the assumptions behind the A$1.20 figure according to R_wu.  At current levels around A$1.84, GQG trades near consensus fair value but offers limited margin of safety given execution risks. The investment case hinges on two key assumptions: that AI valuations will correct meaningfully, and that India's structural growth story will drive sustained outperformance.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what is baked into that A$1.20 fair value? The narrative leans heavily on how fast profits could shift and what margin profile holds up if redemptions stay elevated. Result: Fair Value of A$1.20 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, investors still need to weigh the risk that AUM outflows persist or that AI exposed markets keep outperforming, which could further pressure sentiment around this contrarian stance. Find out about the key risks to this GQG Partners narrative. Another Angle on Value The user narrative pins fair value at A$1.20 and calls GQG overvalued, but our DCF model points the other way, with an estimate of A$4.65, suggesting the current A$1.78 price is trading at a large discount. These are two very different stories, so consider which one aligns more closely with your risk tolerance. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. GQG Discounted Cash Flow as at Apr 2026Next Steps With investors split between risk and reward in this story, it helps to move quickly, test the assumptions yourself, and weigh the 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs. Looking for more investment ideas? If GQG has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with ideas that match the kind of portfolio you actually want to build.  Target potential mispricing by scanning companies that pair strong fundamentals with attractive valuations through the 8 high quality undervalued stocks. Lock in the income angle by reviewing yield focused opportunities screened as 7 dividend fortresses. Sleep easier by concentrating on financially robust names uncovered via the solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (19 results).   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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