Geopolitical Update: The Trump administration has postponed the deadline for strikes on Iranian energy facilities to April 6th, aiming to use "maximum pressure" to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table. Concurrently, risks of a blockade in the Mandeb Strait are escalating after an oil tanker carrying Russian crude was attacked in the Black Sea, indicating a spread of geopolitical conflicts to critical maritime chokepoints.
Macroeconomic Overview: The Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish stance, leading markets to significantly scale back expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026. The US Dollar Index touched the 100 level. The March global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed weakness, with manufacturing activity declining under pressure from high energy costs.
Trade and Policy Developments: Japan has officially launched its mandatory carbon emissions trading system (GX-ETS). The UK announced it will eliminate import tariffs on key wind turbine components starting April 1st, aiming to accelerate green energy infrastructure development in the North Sea.
Energy Sector: Crude oil prices retreated from recent highs due to the delayed military action, but Brent crude remained firmly above $90 per barrel. Supply chain analysis indicates that if the Strait of Hormuz were blocked, 20% of global oil trade and 25% of nitrogen fertilizer trade would be impacted, suggesting energy cost premiums will persist long-term.
Precious Metals: Gold faced a dual setback as safe-haven demand was offset by a strong US dollar, causing prices to drop nearly 3% intraday. Short-term market logic has shifted from seeking safety to preferring cash holdings. However, wide price fluctuations are expected to become the norm until the geopolitical window closes in April.
Industrial Metals: Copper, aluminum and similar commodities faced pressure from both weakening macro demand and dollar strength. Nevertheless, accelerated green infrastructure development in countries like the UK and Japan continues to support medium-to-long term supply gaps for strategic metals, providing a floor for prices.
Technical Analysis Approach: Top-Down Perspective Overall commodity performance: More gains than losses Strongest sector: Chemical products Top performers: Styrene, Pure Benzene, Lithium Carbonate Conclusion: Favor long positions focused on the strongest varieties
Global Market Context: Overseas markets saw fluctuating expectations for Fed rate cuts, with the US Dollar Index showing weak volatility, providing overall support for commodities. Crude oil strengthened due to Middle East tensions and OPEC+ production cut expectations, boosting sentiment in the chemical sector. Domestically, steady growth policy expectations persist, improving demand outlook for industrial goods. However, the ferrous sector weakened due to poor real estate data, while precious metals showed significant divergence amid competing safe-haven and rate cut expectations. The overall pattern features external strength with domestic stability and sector rotation.
I. Core Trading Varieties and Strategy Execution - Methanol: Trend long positions were gradually reduced after achieving 17% profit, with stop-loss raised to the 3170-3220 point range. Subsequent profit-taking closed half the position, achieving a final profit of 20%. The strategy employed "gradual profit-taking + raising stop-loss" to protect gains. - Lithium Carbonate: Long positions established around 164,000-165,000 points were partially closed after achieving 11% profit. Stop-loss was raised to 160,000-163,000 points, with remaining positions held based on resilient fundamentals of both supply and demand growth. - Other varieties: Eggs face resistance near 3500 points. Chemical products like Styrene and Ethylene Glycol followed crude oil's strong performance. The ferrous sector and precious metals were primarily avoided to sidestep volatility.
II. Overall Trading Results - Trend positions totaled 20 trades for the month, with 19 profitable trades, achieving a 95% win rate and stable profitability. - Methanol long positions, entered at an average cost around 3196 points, were held to higher levels, ultimately yielding over 20% profit with full realization of gains. - Lithium Carbonate long positions quickly captured 11% returns, with most profits locked in through phased profit-taking, while remaining positions continue to target further upside. - Overall account equity showed steady growth, effectively avoiding downside risks in the ferrous and precious metals sectors.
III. Review and Reflections - Strategy Effectiveness: The "phased profit-taking + dynamic stop-loss" model effectively protected early profits and managed market volatility, proving suitable for trend-based swing trading. - Sector Timing: The chemical sector (Methanol, Lithium Carbonate) became the core driver of this rally. Timely alerts to maintain focus, combined with real-time monitoring to capture pro-cycle varieties, were key to profitability. Avoiding weaker sectors (ferrous, precious metals) reduced drawdown risks. - Risk Control: Adhering to the "single variety position not exceeding 10%" principle during turbulent periods prevented individual commodity volatility from impacting the overall account. - Trading Insight: Execute entries decisively and exits without regret. Thorough pre-market preparation is essential - never enter a battle unprepared.