Tensions between the US and Iran persist, but the market's focus is gradually shifting from military risks toward economic sanctions and their impact on the global crude supply landscape.

According to reports, US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated on the 20th that the Trump administration will intensify economic pressure on Iran and has threatened measures of "unprecedented economic isolation." He noted that the administration's plan to cripple Iran's economy could potentially eliminate the need for large-scale military action against the country. As the possibility of stricter sanctions looms, their effect on Iranian crude exports has become a new variable for market watchers.

Meanwhile, visible tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains noticeably below pre-conflict levels, yet "dark fleet" shipments are partially filling the gap. Data from UBS research indicates that total oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has remained slightly above 6 million barrels per day over the past week, with dark fleet volumes rising to approximately 5-6 million barrels per day. This suggests the actual impact on crude transit may be less severe than surface shipping data reflects.

More notably, while Iranian supply remains constrained, crude loadings from other Gulf producers are recovering rapidly. The market is not facing a simple, sharp drop in total supply; rather, the regional crude supply structure is being reshaped.

Visible Tanker Traffic Still at Low Levels

According to UBS Evidence Lab data, the average number of oil and gas vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two days was 4.0, higher than the August average of 3.7 but significantly below July's average of 6.4. In deadweight tonnage terms, Gulf export flows over the past two days are estimated at roughly 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day—lower than August's average of 1.9 million and well below July's 3.6 million barrels per day.

However, storage tank and loading data indicate that "dark fleet" volumes have risen to 5-6 million barrels per day over the past week, partially offsetting the decline in visible traffic and keeping total transit through the Strait of Hormuz slightly above 6 million barrels per day. Vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also remain below normal levels, though Red Sea-bound import and export flows have seen some recent recovery.

At the same time, crude loadings from other Gulf producers are clearly rebounding. Over the past two days, average loadings from non-Iranian Gulf producers rose to 10.2 million barrels per day—far above the 3.6 million recorded in the prior two days and exceeding July's average of 4.5 million. The seven-day average since August has now surpassed 6 million barrels per day, reaching a post-conflict high.

In stark contrast, Iranian crude loadings remain at extremely low levels. Iran recorded zero loadings during the same period, with August averaging only about 200,000 barrels per day—down from July's 900,000 and well below the normal range of approximately 1.7-1.8 million barrels per day.

This points to a clear structural divergence in Gulf supply: Iranian exports remain constrained, while other producers are offsetting part of the supply gap by boosting their loadings.

Energy Supply Still Faces Disruptions

Meanwhile, the multiple disruptions to regional energy infrastructure in recent times remain an important backdrop for assessing supply risk. Several Gulf energy facilities and refining capacities have been affected by attacks; while some capacity has been gradually restored, these disruptions continue to keep Gulf crude and refined product shipments below normal levels.

As such, the market's focus has shifted from isolated events to the capacity for supply recovery. On one hand, there is the question of whether new US sanctions can further compress Iranian crude exports; on the other, whether other Gulf producers can sustain higher supply to fill the gap left by Iran.

If Iranian exports contract further and alternative capacity release proves insufficient, supply pressure in the crude market could continue to build, with changes in Strait of Hormuz traffic serving as a key indicator for oil price movements.