Hong Kong's stock market experienced a significant surge today, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.99% and 4.97%, respectively.

Chen Guo, Deputy Director and Chief Strategist of the Orient Fortune Securities Research Institute, stated on social media that June 2026 represents a historic bottom for the Hang Seng Tech Index.

He noted that the recent operational strategy for Asia-Pacific funds has been to reduce holdings in Korean memory stocks and increase holdings in the Hang Seng Tech Index. A bearish trend for Korean memory does not necessarily imply that global technology stocks will follow suit in a decline, as Hang Seng Tech is also a technology index.

Regarding the trajectory of the Hang Seng Tech Index, while institutional views differ, the majority lean towards a positive outlook. Several institutions believe the index is in a low valuation zone or at a bottom area.

For instance, Lu Zhe, Chief Economist at Soochow Securities, suggests that the Hang Seng Tech Index may continue its pattern of bottom consolidation and gradual recovery in July 2026. ICBC International believes the index is currently in a period where valuation repair and fundamental improvements are resonating, with the second half of 2026 being a critical window for allocation.

However, from another perspective, today's substantial rise in the Hong Kong market is closely linked to news-driven catalysts.

On July 7th, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China, announced several significant measures concerning Hong Kong's financial markets. These include deepening financial market connectivity, supporting the prosperity and development of Hong Kong's capital markets, continuing to increase the proportion of national foreign exchange reserves allocated to Hong Kong assets, enhancing liquidity in Hong Kong's offshore renminbi market, and expanding the scale and scope of the Bond Connect Southbound Trading scheme.

Shifting focus to the A-share market.

Today, the three major A-share indices collectively experienced a pullback. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.49%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index declined by 1.87% and 1.70%, respectively.

The total market turnover was 2.58 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 15.9 billion yuan from the previous day. The number of advancing and declining stocks were 1,593 and 3,790, respectively. The median stock price change was a decline of 1.40%, and the average stock price index dropped by 1.89%.

Following signs of bargain-hunting in some stocks yesterday, a positive phenomenon emerged in the market today: broad-based ETFs attracted substantial capital inflows.

These positive signs do not necessarily indicate that the adjustment will end quickly, but their continued emergence could gradually ease market sentiment. For example, on June 10th-11th, broad-based ETFs saw consecutive large inflows, after which the market experienced several days of strong rebound.

Another notable phenomenon in the market today was that overnight pending buy orders for Inspur Information exceeded 100 billion yuan. Such a situation with over a hundred billion yuan in pending orders is rare recently and has not been seen for some time.

Regarding the broader market, the Shanghai Composite Index closed today below the trendline connecting its lows since March. There was no extreme selling point, but a situation of capital flowing back in and then being sold off emerged. This suggests that even if short-term fluctuations occur, there remains downward pressure for further adjustments.

As mentioned previously, after the main board index broke below Tuesday's low during Wednesday's session, it was only suitable for intraday trading (T+0) but not for opening new positions. Today's movement aligned with that expectation. In the coming days, attention should be paid to the support levels for the Shanghai Composite Index near its annual moving average and the May phase bottom.

The current round of adjustment is related to the fading of the two main themes: AI hardware and semiconductors. These themes are currently synchronized with global market fluctuations, necessitating attention to the movements of stock markets in the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

Furthermore, during this period of market fluctuation and correction, news developments also warrant attention. There are two significant events to watch over the next two days.

First, according to reports, former U.S. President Trump stated at a NATO summit that he believes the U.S.-Iran understanding "has ended." Separately, a report indicated that Trump demanded the Treasury Secretary sever all trade ties with Spain.

The news landscape is turbulent. International oil prices surged again, with New York crude oil prices rising over 5% by 5:30 PM. During the initial and middle phases of the U.S.-Iran conflict this year, oil price movements exhibited a seesaw relationship with technology stock trends.

Second, the U.S. Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting early tomorrow morning.

The Fed's statement last month removed forward guidance on interest rates and did not include the dot plot interest rate projections. Therefore, these meeting minutes could be particularly important.

In terms of sectors, low-priced sectors and certain legacy sectors once again led the gains on the industry leaderboard. However, the movements of these sectors are disorderly, difficult to predict, and lack strong sustainability.

Following the fading of the main themes, many investors had anticipated potential rallies in humanoid robotics and commercial aerospace. Looking at the actual price action, many stocks within these sectors (including core stocks and highly recognizable names) have recently exhibited an "A-shaped" pattern of sharp rise and fall.

Regarding AI, domestic computing power and software services showed strength.

In recent days, the liquid cooling sector briefly acted as a "spark" for the AI theme but subsequently experienced a corrective decline. Therefore, whether domestic computing power and software services can sustain a rally remains questionable.

Overall, with the main themes receding, other sectors are either fluctuating in correction or rotating, making profitable trading quite challenging.

In conclusion, the main board index broke below the trendline connecting lows since March today. Although short-term fluctuations are possible, the adjustment is not yet over, and patience is still required. During the period when main themes are fading, trading difficulty increases, and often the harder one tries, the more money one may lose. It is important to view the current adjustment rationally and not lose confidence. After every round of adjustment, there will be a subsequent phase of rising market conditions.