According to insights from Woofun AI, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen has made a clear judgment that Bitcoin is unlikely to set a new all-time high (ATH) in the near term. Despite the potential for a market rebound, breaking through existing records faces multiple structural challenges, and Thielen has defined the $100,000 level as a key psychological and technical support zone, noting that even merely touching this level would constitute a major market event. Bitcoin currently trades well below its peak of approximately $73,000 from March 2024, and shifts in the macroeconomic environment have made high-level consolidation the norm, with this cautious forecast grounded in the reality that the market is encountering significant resistance at higher price ranges and struggling to sustain upward momentum.

The underlying reason lies in the continued escalation of macroeconomic uncertainty, with interest rate policies and inflation data directly weighing on risk assets, including Bitcoin. Notably, volatility in the cryptocurrency market has declined, which, while often viewed as a precursor to major price movements, also signals that the market lacks a clear directional bias. Data compiled by Woofun AI indicates that despite rising institutional interest and an improving regulatory environment, the upside potential remains constrained in the short term.

Some analysts maintain an optimistic outlook, suggesting that the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024 could serve as a catalyst to push prices higher, and historically, halvings have often preceded bull markets. However, past performance offers no guarantee of future repetition. Additionally, if regulatory clarity emerges, such as the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, it could attract new capital inflows and gradually lift prices, though this still depends on the specific pace of policy implementation.

From a historical perspective, it is crucial to distinguish between nominal all-time highs and real all-time highs. In November 2021, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of approximately $69,000, yet after adjusting for inflation, that figure is actually higher when measured in today's monetary value. This means that a new nominal record does not necessarily represent a new real peak, a nuance that is often overlooked in market analysis. The view of $100,000 as a significant milestone suggests that even if Bitcoin rebounds to that level, it does not necessarily mean a new all-time high has been set, as that price remains below the inflation-adjusted peak of 2021. This consideration of real purchasing power highlights the limitations of focusing solely on nominal price indicators, and investors need to pay closer attention to the true value anchor of the asset.

For investors, Thielen's remarks serve as a reminder that Bitcoin's price trajectory is rarely a straight line upward. While the asset has delivered substantial returns over the long term, short-term forecasts are fraught with uncertainty. Markus Thielen of 10x Research reiterates that a new all-time high is unlikely in the near term, but a rebound toward $100,000 is possible, underscoring the asset's continued significance. As always, investors should exercise caution when faced with such predictions and take into account the broader market landscape, avoiding the pitfall of being misled by any single indicator, so as to seek genuine value opportunities amid volatility.