Analyst Julio Moreno has determined that Bitcoin has officially entered the early stages of a new bull market cycle, with most market indicators pointing toward a restart of the upward trend, though trend confirmation still faces key resistance.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price must effectively break above the 365-day moving average, currently situated at $83,000, to establish a bullish market structure. Should this support level fail to hold, the market will likely experience a pullback.

A deeper variable lies in the on-chain supply-demand imbalance: the significant prior rally has accumulated substantial unrealized profits, which could easily trigger concentrated selling pressure. Recent data shows a sharp increase in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges, and this oversupply signal often foreshadows short-term selling pressure intensification, becoming a core risk factor hindering sustained price appreciation.

For institutional investors, breaking above the 365-day moving average serves as a key signal for assessing upward momentum strength. Once confirmed, it will attract substantial capital inflows; conversely, it may trigger cascading declines.

Historical patterns indicate that even within bull market cycles, Bitcoin frequently experiences significant corrections, with price movements often leading fundamental performance. Therefore, despite the overall optimistic outlook, investors must remain cautious about short-term volatility and be fully prepared for potential market turbulence.